2023 Ice-Out Predictions

[PSU]

Hello Friends.

 

It looks as if we are getting closer and closer to ice-out.

 

I realize it's too early to tell, but some of the Facebook pages seem to indicate once the ice is out, water levels will be high compared to average, however, we should be able to drop the docks. Would the more knowledgeable folks on this site concur?

 

Thanks

 

Andy

[delcecchi]

For sure we are getting closer...  How close is the big question.

[jparrucci]

It is getting close for sure. Ice has pulled away from most shorelines, Pike Bay is ice free to about Duffy last I heard, and Oak Narrows is getting close to completely open.  We are looking at early next week is my guess.  Lows mostly in the 40s, along with highs in the 60s and sun and wind should get it moving fast late this week. 

 

My dock was about an inch from being submerged on Saturday.  Last year it was about 4 inches under water at the worst.  There isn't really anything left to run off at this point and forecast looks dry, so hopefully we are about at peak now, or we are going to be looking at a repeat of last year's mess. 

 

I am hoping to get docks and lifts in this weekend.  I am facing East and pretty well protected.  Our bay goes out before main lake areas as well.  

[PSU]

Thanks Jparrucci, very helpful. look forward to seeing you on the water (older green Lund Tyee 1950 usually with a dog (Frazer).

 

 

[jparrucci]

5 hours ago, PSU said:

Thanks Jparrucci, very helpful. look forward to seeing you on the water (older green Lund Tyee 1950 usually with a dog (Frazer).

 

 

No problem.  I'll post an update this weekend as well. I drive past your place all the time (assume it's yours with the PSU flag).  I'm nearby on Breezy Point.  Rocking a new boat this year with a 17 foot grey Tracker V165 w/ 115 merc.  Wife bought a pontoon as well that she will get lost frequently and need rescuing.  I'm anxious to put the new boat and livescope plus to work. 

[Raven77]

Here's how it looks at my cabin on Richie Bay today.  With the weather report looking warm I think ice should be out here about a week from today (5/9) which happens to be the date I picked for ice out .  Last spring the water was up 3-4" onto the concrete dock pier and now it is a few inches below.  Still might be high enough that I need to put the 2x4's back on.  Picking up the new Warrior 208 Friday.  Can't wait to get back on open water!

[TrueNorth]

Sure looks like Ice will be out in 5-7 days. 

[SkunkedAgain]

Black Bay began opening up at sunset tonight

 

[StateofHockey]

Is Black bay now ice free?

Coming up this weekend and would love to wet a line

[Raven77]

Black Bay is not ice free yet.

[SkunkedAgain]

Nope, it's mostly ice still...but it does look like there is some open water in the center as of this afternoon. Rome wasn't built in a day

 

[PSU]

Raven77, any updates to your concrete pier measurements?

 

Thanks

[delcecchi]

How is the level of frost in the ground?    Wondering about turning the water back on, but have another week...

[smurfy]

1 hour ago, delcecchi said:

How is the level of frost in the ground?    Wondering about turning the water back on, but have another week...

Del, i know your more north and east of our cabin, but when i was up at the cabin there was no frost at that time.  if that helps???? and this was an area i checked that gets shade from the cabin building most the day!!!! honestly with all the snow we got up there early i dont think there was alot of frost?????

 

we are 40 miles north hand west of grand rapids!!!!!!!!!

Edited May 5, 2023 by smurfy

[Raven77]

7 hours ago, PSU said:

Raven77, any updates to your concrete pier measurements?

 

Thanks

Down about an inch in the last 3 days.

 

[Raven77]

Going fast now.  Should be gone in a couple days.

[delcecchi]

Your lips to god's ears.   

[JerkinLips]

I updated the Thermal Degree Day graph.  The new data is graphed in red.  The black line is from 10 days ago.  We fell behind for the first few days but have caught up and passed the old forecast.  With this new forecast Vermilion will reach 220 TDD tomorrow, May 7th.  Considering that Big Bay typically clears 7-10 days after Pike Bay, and Pike Bay cleared on May 4th (Glenmore lake cam), I think Vermilion will be ice free Thursday, May 11th.  Will be interesting to see what the TDD is on actual ice out this year.  I will be up to watch it go off.

 

[TomWehler]

To me the thing I watch is water levels.

We no can park on island if water over iron to get things going.

Then there are the people who zoom thru Narrows half throttle or top speed an disrupt everything.

Last 28 years have lost bout four feet of soil on west side n bout six feet on north side.

Mix of Nature rules n Knuckle Heads!

Have to get the Tax man out n measure n record…..less can be best here.

Tests in life make the ride more fun,

Have a Fun weekend!

Go Leafs!

T

 

 

Tug’r n Max throw out “The Look” of confusion as I pass Culver’s!!

: )

Yes Yes—-I always go back!

Lov my Boyz.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2023 by TomWehler

[Raven77]

Going to rain tonight and tomorrow.  I'm guessing gone by Monday.

[JerkinLips]

4 hours ago, Raven77 said:

Going to rain tonight and tomorrow. 

Warm rain will definitely speed up the ice melt.

[CigarGuy]

Ice went out overnight on the Partridge River. Took out my neighbors secondary dock that's in a little cove. First time in close to 30 years.

[Raven77]

Ice is off Richie Bay this morning.  Still some black skim ice on Head O' Lakes Bay.  Should all be gone by Wednesday.

[CigarGuy]

6 minutes ago, Raven77 said:

Ice is off Richie Bay this morning.  Still some black skim ice on Head O' Lakes Bay.  Should all be gone by Wednesday.

You're just saying Wednesday because that's the day you picked. I'd say today's the day.... The day I picked

[chaffmj]

Wait a minute didn't the ice go out 2 days ago? 

[Raven77]

3 hours ago, CigarGuy said:

You're just saying Wednesday because that's the day you picked. I'd say today's the day.... The day I picked

[SkunkedAgain]

Too bad for the dock. Yeah, the wind was coming out of the east on Friday when Black Bay went ice-free, so that wasn't a normal direction for the ice to travel. I am confident that Mrs SkunkedAgain is hoping for the ice to strike a fatal blow to our dock, so that we can get a new one.

[CigarGuy]

Couple of boats went by today heading into Black Bay

[CigarGuy]

Just watched a drone video on the Lake Vermilion fb page. Lots of dark ice out a ways from The Landing into Head O Lakes bay. I don't think you could get a boat from the landing into Wakemup bay right now. You have to be a member of the site, can't share the video.

[SkunkedAgain]

I'll have to look. I'd bet that Head O Lakes will be open tomorrow or Thursday at the latest.

 

Here are two free sources that I always use to figure out if Head O Lakes is open:

Eagle Cam:  https://lakevermilion.com/htmls/EagleEye/index.html

White Eagle Resort - 2 webcams in HOL:  https://whiteeagleresort.com/webcam

 

I still see ice on all three cameras, but getting harder and harder to see