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Place your bets. Winter isn't giving up its grips just yet. In contrast to last year, I'm going to predict a more normal ice-out of May 2nd.

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I'm taking May 14th, the second day of open water season.  30" of ice on February 11 (6" was white ice), heavy snow cover yet, and cooler long range forecast are my reasons.  Hope it is earlier.

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I was thinking the same last year, and then in no time mother nature threw sunshine and rain at our lake ice and it opened just in time.

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I'll guess May 8th. Hope SkunkedAgain is right. Have about 2" of new snow and still coming down.

Edited by CigarGuy
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May 6th.  
Son Tom’s  46th B 

-Day. 
Yeah, I know I only look 30 but it’s just the way it works. 
 

🤩

Friend of mine is a old school Cop in NY City. 

lucky guy.
Shot at alot in last 25 years.  Only hit once by a bouncer.

His name is Rick O’ Shea.

☘️🍀

 

Happy Happy St Pats day from ol Mushy Tom.

🏒🥅😎

Big Smiles n Keep on Rocken!

 

 

 

 

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  • 'we have more fun' FishingMN Builders
7 hours ago, TomWehler said:

May 6th.  
Son Tom’s  46th B 

-Day. 
Yeah, I know I only look 30 but it’s just the way it works. 
 

🤩

Friend of mine is a old school Cop in NY City. 

lucky guy.
Shot at alot in last 25 years.  Only hit once by a bouncer.

His name is Rick O’ Shea.

☘️🍀

 

Happy Happy St Pats day from ol Mushy Tom.

🏒🥅😎

Big Smiles n Keep on Rocken!

 

 

 

 

IMG_9474.MOV

Why would a Cop get shot by a bouncer, aren't they both kind of in the enforcement area?  Or was he out of line some night at the bar?  :unsure:

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9 hours ago, TomWehler said:

Friend of mine is a old school Cop in NY City. 

lucky guy.
Shot at alot in last 25 years.  Only hit once by a bouncer.

His name is Rick O’ Shea.

 

Just in case you aren't kidding around.

What is it called when a bullet bounces?

ric·o·chet ˈri-kə-ˌshā British also -ˌshet. Synonyms of ricochet. : a glancing rebound (as of a projectile off a flat surface) the ricochet of the bullet off the wall.

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  • 'we have more fun' FishingMN Builders
1 hour ago, chaffmj said:

I'll take May 2.

 

May 2nd up in Ely?  Not a chance!  May 15th maybe!  

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8 degrees in Rochester this morning.    looking at the 10 day forecast for Cook, not much melting going on out to the end of next week.

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Yup. Bullseye on the Ricochet .

Bit o simple St Pats humor as that’s how I live n guess this flows thru my fingers.

 

Always interesting to see how close guesses are here.

 

where my island is clears out before the bay n large sections of lake so that is fun also.

In past a few times last 28 years I hit it right on.

Silly icy fun

Big Smiles n Keep on Rocken!

T

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by TomWehler
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27 inches of ice on Burntside Lake and a lot of snow cover, even before getting 4 inches more Tuesday night.  I am sticking with my May 14th guess.

20230321_174814.jpg

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The snow is still fantastic. Last weekend I hiked in the woods. The snow was crotch-deep. So much fun but exhausting to walk through.

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On 3/22/2023 at 11:22 PM, JerkinLips said:

27 inches of ice on Burntside Lake and a lot of snow cover, even before getting 4 inches more Tuesday night.  I am sticking with my May 14th guess.

20230321_174814.jpg

 

Random question as I don't know the area well: is Burntside pretty difficult to pattern for you? I've consistently heard it produces, but can be tricky as hell to figure out.

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Below zero lows...we are going the wrong way.  Not looking real good at the moment for an ice free opener. Things can go fast like last year with a handful of very warm days, but we better start making progress soon. 

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It's my favorite time of the year, looking at the forecast and trying to figure out when the lake will truly begin its annual change. Daytime highs will be above freezing 8 of the next 10 days with refreezing at night. Maybe 7-8 inches of snow next week, but that precipitation forecast is too far off to be accurate. It's slightly more reliable than my prediction of a hurricane hitting the lake! I do see sun forecasted for 5 of 10 days with temps above freezing. The sun is starting to get pretty strong even when air temps aren't that high. If that snow doesn't hit mid-week, I could see a portion of the snowpack melting.

 

I'm heading up tomorrow to *inspect* the lake in person :D

 

image.png.732d2d1efacd3d647db39e5c46fe66ee.png

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Hard to imagine an ice-out anytime before the month of May with that 10-day forecast and how much ice/snow still exists on the lake.  If ice out happens just prior to the opener, I do feel like that could be a good thing for the overall bite.  Let’s hope that is the outcome here and not an opener where we are ice fishing.  


Remember the ice out date in 2012?  April 2nd...  Amazing to think it was ever that early!
 

Jeff and I will be up this weekend, retrieving our boats from winter storage and chasing some whitefish, Tullies, jumbo perch, and maybe even a crappie or two.  The bite for all species is usually really good this time of year so we’re looking forward to that. 

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Predictions to date below.  I will award the first correct guess a case of beer ($20 mailed to you; I drink cheap beer).

 

image.png.67e77eec28aa8c8f94480c9aafc2ba7d.png

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I won this thing a few years ago and still haven't collected my free beer from SkunkedAgain.  Is there a statute of limitations?  😉 My prediction for this year is May 9th.

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My prediction is May 11. I would rather meet for a beer with everyone than get free beer to drink alone!

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I agree with the idea of meeting for a beer!  I am going with May 12th and keeping my fingers crossed.  

 

Edited by MikeG3Boat
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12 hours ago, Raven77 said:

I won this thing a few years ago and still haven't collected my free beer from SkunkedAgain.  Is there a statute of limitations?  😉 My prediction for this year is May 9th.

Supply chain issues....

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Entries sure rolled in when I offered the case of beer.  We could meet at my Stuntz Bay boathouse if that would work.  Close to the landing, could anchor in front of the boathouse, or could park your vehicle at by the boathouse.  Maybe we could require the winner to be present, LOL.

 

image.png.a7ba73390886c087189df85d3d9ae457.png

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As crazy as that might sound, May 18th isn’t a bad guess.  We were on the lake yesterday and had somewhere around 30” of solid ice with some snow on top.  This is hard January-type ice.  No honeycombing, no chipping or slush.  In fact, my Dewalt hammer drill couldn’t take it.  It’s dead.   Another foot of snow on the way this week?  That won’t help. 

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