2023 Ice-Out Predictions

[SkunkedAgain]

If we get five more people to guess we would be at 25 participants. With that many, the 24 incorrect guessers could each submit one beer to a "variety pack" for the winner. Maybe that would be more of a punishment than a reward but would be humorous. I would definitely send a Schlitz from my private collection.

[TomWehler]

Schlitz.    Ahhh the cause of an answer to many things in my youth.

Cheers to the winner!

T

 

 

 

 

Edited April 10, 2023 by TomWehler

[mdogdaddy]

Couple of good dates left on Grubens Marina facebook page contest.  Free Sweatshirt.

 

[Better Than Working!]

Just got back from Kansas where you can now purchase Yeungling, so I will gladly sacrifice one for the cause!

[Dialed123]

Sign me up! 

 

I'll take May 3rd to be different.

[Fish Head]

I'll take April 30th because almost all of May is taken. Come on sunshine!!!

[JerkinLips]

6 hours ago, Fish Head said:

I'll take April 30th because almost all of May is taken. Come on sunshine!!!

 

Most of the snow has melted on the lake and the next 2 days are quite warm, but the 12 days after that are quite cold with not a lot of sunshine.  Still think it will be May, but good luck.

 

[Nix769]

Confucius say, "there is no greater level of pessimism than a man waiting for ice out" 

[SkunkedAgain]

I never noticed that you could view a weather "calendar." Obviously the further out they project, the less reliable it is but the rest of April looks promising. For some reason I could only the weather calendar defaulted to Hibbing instead of Cook, which probably means that they only do this for bigger towns:

 

Here is the 10-day for Cook. The forecasts look close enough for horseshoes....

 

Edited April 13, 2023 by SkunkedAgain

[CigarGuy]

The few days of warm weather (mid 70's) last week got the melt going..... Then this . Upper 40's tomorrow and then cooler with lows below freezing the next several days. Getting a little nervous for the opener!

[Brianf.]

This’ll be a kick in the shins…
 

[SkunkedAgain]

I think that I'll concede that my May 2nd ice-out guess was optimistic

Edited April 20, 2023 by SkunkedAgain

[JerkinLips]

23 hours ago, SkunkedAgain said:

I think that I'll concede that my May 2nd ice-out guess was optimistic

The recent cold temps and snow have not helped the last couple of weeks.  Overnight lows below freezing the next week.  Think we may be threatening the record for latest ice-out unfortunately.

[CigarGuy]

More snow last night, it just won't quit! The picture you'll notice from the other day, the other picture is from last night. I did have the deck cleared prior to the new snow. I agree with J/L, this is going to be a very late ice out.  Hopefully, the weather Gods prove me wrong!!

[BWpineisland]

Andy just posted on FB that they had 7” of snow and 20+ inches of hard ice still in Daisy Bay this morning

[Bbobber]

Looks like we might be ice fishing for opener

[delcecchi]

Check this out... some guys at the U did an ice out prediction widget.     It looks at freezing degree days and thawing degree days and the forecast and predicts ice out....

https://seagrant.umn.edu/news-info/featured-stories/forecasting-ice-out-minnesota-lakes

https://seagrant.umn.edu/programs/recreation-and-water-safety-program/mn-ice-ice-out

 

I put in Hibbing and we are at 106 thawing degree days.  The falls is at 134.     

About another 100+ thawing degree days or amount average temp is  above freezing by the opener would by about 6 degrees per day.  Looks like cook will get about 50 by may 1.   The 220 is a 50% chance ice is out.  300 for 90% chance..   So gonna need decent weather in may.

Edited April 23, 2023 by delcecchi

[smurfy]

11 hours ago, delcecchi said:

Check this out... some guys at the U did an ice out prediction widget.     It looks at freezing degree days and thawing degree days and the forecast and predicts ice out....

https://seagrant.umn.edu/news-info/featured-stories/forecasting-ice-out-minnesota-lakes

https://seagrant.umn.edu/programs/recreation-and-water-safety-program/mn-ice-ice-out

 

I put in Hibbing and we are at 106 thawing degree days.  The falls is at 134.     

About another 100+ thawing degree days or amount average temp is  above freezing by the opener would by about 6 degrees per day.  Looks like cook will get about 50 by may 1.   The 220 is a 50% chance ice is out.  300 for 90% chance..   So gonna need decent weather in may.

kinda along the same principle that the DNR has for deer and the winter severity index???????

[JerkinLips]

4 hours ago, smurfy said:

kinda along the same principle that the DNR has for deer and the winter severity index???????

Except the WSI only counts the days with snow above a certain depth and temperature below a selected number.  This TDD is a better predictor because it considers the severity of the deviation (average daily temperature above freezing freezing).

[delcecchi]

I'm wondering if the 50% isn't for small lakes.   Don't they open up first?  We might need more like 300 thaw degree days.

looking at forecast, monday is -2, Tuesday is 0, Wed is 8, thursday 9, friday 6,  saturday 7,  and so on.   

 

[JerkinLips]

48 minutes ago, delcecchi said:

I'm wondering if the 50% isn't for small lakes.   Don't they open up first?  We might need more like 300 thaw degree days.

looking at forecast, monday is -2, Tuesday is 0, Wed is 8, thursday 9, friday 6,  saturday 7,  and so on. 

Good point on lake acres.  I bet lake depth would also impact the ice out date.  Burntside and Trout are 50% deeper than Vermilion (though both smaller is acres), but usually ice out later than Vermilion.

[delcecchi]

Yeah, I just got to thinking about the numbers and all that.   If 50% of the lakes are ice out, which lakes would it be?  After all it is sort of a deterministic process.  Not like random variation.  So if we need another 200 thaw degree days  Temp would need to average 45 more or less.

[SkunkedAgain]

It looks like I need my TI-81 to follow along...

 

On a bonus note, I see rain for the second half of the week. Rain is good.

Edited April 24, 2023 by SkunkedAgain

[JerkinLips]

I am an engineer who is also unfortunately OCD.  I would love to analyze this data filtering it by lake acreage and depth.  I think the variability would decrease significantly.  On the current chart, 10% of the times/lakes the ice goes out by 150 TDD, and 10% after 300 TDD (a range of 15 days assuming an average temperature of 42°F).  I bet if it was filtered by lake size, this variability would decrease by over 50%.  Other significant factors that will affect ice out would be precipitation (rain+ and snow-), sunshine, and wind.  But these would be difficult to quantify.  Fun stuff.

[delcecchi]

Me engineer too.   MMMmm Numbers.   Yes it was my assumption that the big deep lakes are the last to be ice free.   So, Burntside might be like 300, Vermilion a little less and so on.    Black lake would be early...  Bet if you dropped a note to the author they would send their raw ice out data to you.   A little Python and you would know.

 

I just happened to stumble across that link which lead to the other one...   Hope you all enjoyed it..  Now if we just knew what the weather was going to be...   10 day forecast for Cook doesn't look like much warming.    

 

Edit:   I went back and looked at figure 1, which is a histogram of ice out dates.   It listed the lakes used, probably since they were ones that DNR had convenient data for.   

Quote

Figure 1. Bar chart showing the frequency of lake ice-out in northern Minnesota lakes using ice-out dates recorded by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. The lakes included in this bar chart are Deer Lake (near Deer River, Minn.), Gull Lake, Jessie Lake, Leech Lake (main), Mille Lacs, Pelican, Pokegama (near Grand Rapids, Minn.), Siseebakwet, Split Hand, Swan (near Pengilly), Trout (near Coleraine, Minn.), Trout (Wabana Chain), Wabana, Whitefish, and Winnibigoshish.

 

I also noted that on the widget it shows the falls as having more TDD than Hibbing as of a couple days ago.

Edited April 24, 2023 by delcecchi

[SkunkedAgain]

On 4/12/2023 at 8:56 PM, JerkinLips said:

 

I might be closer if I guessed May 17th instead of May 2nd

[Brianf.]

My ice out prediction is Father’s Day, June 18th…because Mother Nature is pissed that opener is on Mother’s Day weekend yet again.  

Edited April 26, 2023 by Brianf.

[JerkinLips]

Today's fun, and possibly good news.  I plotted the TDD for Tower starting when it finally trended positive (April 9) and added Accu-weather forecast data.  If we assume the 50% confidence level for TDD ice-out on their chart, Vermilion would clear on May 8.  The Weather Channel forecast for the next 13 days is very similar, only 3 TDD higher (would be the same day for ice-out).

 

I think that the ice-out date will be later because (a) the warm-up started late, and (b) Vermilion is a very large and deep lake.  I am going to assume a 3 day delay for the late start (a) and a 3 day delay for the lake size (b).  My new "educated" prediction therefore is May 14, same as my original prediction (LOL).  Will be interested to see what the TDD is when the ice actually goes off.

 

[JerkinLips]

3 hours ago, SkunkedAgain said:

I might be closer if I guessed May 17th instead of May 2nd

Since May 17th was still available, I approved your change on the chart (LOL).  May 2nd is now open if anybody thinks Vermilion will get Hawaii weather the next week.

 

[SkunkedAgain]

Oh I was fine with my original prediction, but do appreciate your kindness. Now it'll for sure happen by next Tuesday!