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Covid 19 Tips


Tom Sawyer

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Tom Sawyer

For those of you that would rather save your money for gas, instead of hoarding hand sanitizer ...

2 cups of 95% or greater isopropyl alcohol (99% pictured), 1 cup aloe vera gel

20200320_160644.thumb.jpg.e0831294a6593d6937ed93640c1e307e.jpg

 

Good luck everyone 😉 stay positive and productive. 

Don't forget to breathe,  there's still lots of ice out there Gustophsen 😆

 

 

 

 

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  • 'we have more fun' FishingMN Builders
eyeguy 54
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Rick G
3 hours ago, Tom Sawyer said:

Likley won't change much, except a weak 2020 class of walleyes in lakes that benefit from stocking.  

Edited by Rick G
I cant spell😏
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eyeguy 54
11 minutes ago, Rick G said:

Likley won't change much, except a week 2020 class of walleyes in lakes that benefit from stocking.  

Don’t wreck my cry

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Tom Sawyer

90% of our walleye lakes are very dependent of stocking efforts. Most cases they only get stocked ever other year. So it will cause a big gap. 

Really can't see why stripping couldn't have continued with proper PPE. Most dip nets are over 6 foot long, distancing would of been minimal. But I'm sure our DNR knows best. 

 

FB_IMG_1586909719237.jpg.ac9ba9b5041d96d3d0b4dfe56f381193.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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gimruis
16 hours ago, Rick G said:

Likley won't change much, except a weak 2020 class of walleyes in lakes that benefit from stocking.  

 

Which is about 95% of all the lakes in the state...some even claim they're "native" to those lakes too...

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Tom Sawyer
2 hours ago, Wanderer said:


Season premier last night. 😁

 That's why I posted it, never miss it. I think Bloodlines with Phils kid Josh, is even better. 

Never knew one on one fishing around the big island was so lucrative. I used to visit on weekends when I lived in Alaska and just sleep on the beach, 90 buck round trip 😎

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  • Official Fishing Report Team - MN
IceHawk

Really enjoy Deadliest Catch last nights show was awesome! Great to see some of the old faces back in action. Johnny Hilstrand popping bullets in Harleys bags classic. Surprised to See Nick Maybar still working on the Northwestern that guy is getting up there to still be busting tail on the deck! 

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17 hours ago, Tom Sawyer said:

Really can't see why stripping couldn't have continued with proper PPE.

I am thinking it has more to do with the hoards on-lookers, rubber-neckers, and curious Joes stopping to take a peek.  That is me.  

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  • 'we have more fun' FishingMN Creators

If you want to improve your immunity to CCP Virus do a little research on google and youtube on the following:

 

Hydrothermal Therapy

Forest Bathing

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Tom Sawyer
22 hours ago, Hoey said:

I am thinking it has more to do with the hoards on-lookers, rubber-neckers, and curious Joes stopping to take a peek.  That is me.  

 Maybe? But, here's some more common sense ......

https://www.thefishingwire.com/releases/a427fe36-44ca-4fe3-a60a-7eb9c5b06f4c

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delcecchi
On 4/11/2020 at 12:29 PM, Rick said:

From Brian A:

Commissioner Malcolm and the U of M finally released a bit more model data/results yesterday, which Governor Walz is using as a large piece of input data for his decision making. I’d like to thank them for that. Now I’d like to throw on my engineer hat and see if any of that data even makes sense by comparing it to the IHME model.

𝐒𝐮𝐦𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐲:

Walz, Malcolm, and the U of Minnesota think Minnesota will see 𝟐𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐬 and ICU demand of 𝟑𝟕𝟎𝟎 𝐛𝐞𝐝𝐬. Peak of 𝐉𝐮𝐥𝐲 𝟏𝟑.

Dr Fauci and the IHME model out of the U of Washington think Minnesota will see 𝟒𝟒𝟐 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐬 and ICU demand of 𝟏𝟐𝟕 𝐛𝐞𝐝𝐬. Peak of 𝐀𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐥 𝟐𝟔.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐔 𝐨𝐟 𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐨𝐭𝐚 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐭𝐨𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐚 𝐡𝐨𝐦𝐞-𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐢𝐬 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐛𝐲 𝐚 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝟓𝟎𝐱 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚 𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝟐𝟗𝐱 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐂𝐔 𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐝. Dr Fauci is a well-respected epidemiologist – more credentials than anyone who’s working on the U of M models as far as I can tell. He’s touting numbers from the IHME model out of the University of Washington -- so it’s not like I’m just re-tweeting random numbers from a right wing nutjob here.

Which model is correct? Why do we care? Well first off, if the U of M model is actually correct with a peak of July 13, then we should expect the stay-home order to be extended well into July. Their 95% confidence range goes out to 21 weeks actually on this date....so that July 13 date could really mean as late as August 17. All recommendations I’ve seen call it completely asinine to be relaxing restrictions prior to peaking. So, the half million Minnesotans currently out of work (and more to come) need to plan to remain out of work well past July 13 -- possibly almost to September. Planning a work/daycare/etc stoppage into July/August is a a lot different than planning to be out of work into early May following an April peak. At this point, one would have to suggest that even starting school in the fall is in question!

Furthermore, besides peak date issues (which have obvious economic and social implications), let's try an exercise where we assume the U of M model is correct on mortality and project a few numbers for nationwide death toll. Assume we are going to experience 22000 deaths here in MN -- the state with the lowest current per-capita infection rate, a fairly low population density, and only 5.6M total population. Now, do the math on what the US population of 327M should see. Even under the conservative (and simple) assumption that the other states had the same population density and demographics (we know NYC actually has 10x higher density than Minneapolis), 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔 𝐨𝐟 𝐌 𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝟐𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝟓.𝟔𝐌 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐢𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐒 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐰𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐬𝐞𝐞 𝟏.𝟐𝟖 𝐌𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐝𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐬!

<cough> <cough>

Does that seem correct? Have ANY other well-respected models suggested numbers in this range using a social distancing and stay-home order rules that we have in place? If we trust this U of M model, that means the rest of the country is royally effed – pardon the French. I guess my question is would you normally trust a home-grown model that's so far off from other nationally-respected models? One that is contradicting the other predictions by a factor of 50x? I know I don’t trust it. I've been trying to figure out whether Walz and Malcolm are intentionally lying to us, or if they are just incompetent. Sadly, I'm actually hoping it's the latter, as lying would open the door to a lot of political conspiracy theories that I don’t subscribe to.

--------------------------------

For reference, here’s the links to all the data above

Here's the PDF from the Minnesota department of health:

https://mn.gov/covid19/assets/MNmodel_PPT_tcm1148-427787.pdf

Lots of charts in there, and several scenarios. The one they seem to be focused on is "scenaro 4" that says 22000 deaths if we maintain our current trajectory (Stay-Home order through May 8 followed by lower social distancing for another 3 weeks).

Here's the IHME models:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/minnesota
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

I threw a NY link in there just for good measure -- not because I think MN will end up like NY, but to quickly illustrate that the U of M models are suggesting we'll be ALMOST TWICE AS BAD on mortality numbers as the IHME prediction for NY.

Well, here we are in Middle of May.   663 deaths.   203 in ICU.   295 hospital not icu.    Not at peak yet.

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Wanderer
1 hour ago, delcecchi said:

Well, here we are in Middle of May.   663 deaths.   203 in ICU.   295 hospital not icu.    Not at peak yet.


I’ll bet you a walleye fishing trip the U of W numbers will be way closer than the U of M.

U of W might’ve even been closer on the date had we not locked down the state so tight.

 

St. Cloud is the MN hotspot right now and has been for a week.  Another week or two and they’ll be in a plateau or decline.  Our MN hospitals have the capacity to handle what MN will see for numbers.

 

I don’t post a ton of what I do know about this but the predictions I subscribe to have been pretty accurate so far.  Some rural MN counties might not peak until July since it’s been so slow to reach them but the peak won’t be anything like urban areas, which will be over by then.  
 

Go ahead and dig this up in July and quote me if I’m wrong but I’m feeling pretty confident.

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gimruis

I have been reading about some "super spreading" events across the globe.  They all have 2 items in common:

1) Large amount of people

2) Indoors

 

Its best to avoid the combination of these two items if we want to reduce the risk of exponential infection.  A phased in approach is working pretty well here.  Opening up all the bars/pubs and gathering together indoors like they've done in Wisconsin is just a bad idea.

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delcecchi
14 minutes ago, gimruis said:

I have been reading about some "super spreading" events across the globe.  They all have 2 items in common:

1) Large amount of people

2) Indoors

 

Its best to avoid the combination of these two items if we want to reduce the risk of exponential infection.  A phased in approach is working pretty well here.  Opening up all the bars/pubs and gathering together indoors like they've done in Wisconsin is just a bad idea.

 

I've been looking around at various sources trying to find out what it takes to actually become infected.    So far it seems as if there isn't much of a consensus, not even as to the relative importance of "through the air" compared to "from surfaces to hands to face" .    But, yeah it sounds like extended periods indoors with an infected person is a bad idea.     

Just saw the story that "many" of the cases here in Olmsted county have been traced to a party back a couple months where someone who was asymptomatic but infectious attended.    Health Department is being pretty secretive about any details, claiming Hippa and all that.   

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gimruis
1 hour ago, delcecchi said:

 

I've been looking around at various sources trying to find out what it takes to actually become infected.    So far it seems as if there isn't much of a consensus, not even as to the relative importance of "through the air" compared to "from surfaces to hands to face" .    But, yeah it sounds like extended periods indoors with an infected person is a bad idea.     

Just saw the story that "many" of the cases here in Olmsted county have been traced to a party back a couple months where someone who was asymptomatic but infectious attended.    Health Department is being pretty secretive about any details, claiming Hippa and all that.   

 

Yes, I saw that one too.  The specific ones I was referring to was the synagogue in South Korea, the birthday party in Chicago, the choir practice in Seattle, the funeral in Georgia, the Biogen conference in Boston, the ski resort/bar in Austria...I could keep going but these are some of the most obvious examples.

 

As for the most common route of spread...its respiratory droplets, not surfaces.  Wiping down your groceries is fine, but the primary issue is when you go into the store and there are other people present.  That's why masks actually do help this.  If you hear someone coughing, RUN.

Edited by gimruis
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