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Wanderer

Nice to see there might actually be some ice melting up that way!

jkrash, those are hooded mergansers though. ;)  I might’ve called out my first woodie sighting this year as one of those too.  But nah!  I know what I saw had to be woodie! Haha!

Seriously though, I’ve seen more, and more variety of ducks this spring than ever  in my life.  The late lake ice outs have made the river a diver Mecca.  I think I saw a few with Ely or bust signs on em too! :D

The bulk of woodies have been in the Little Falls area for about a week, some for a couple.  The hoodeds have been here for at least a month.

They’re all coming though!

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jkrash
Posted (edited)

Your Right! after clicking on the picture a couple times and zooming in you can see the big white head of the male hooded mergaser.

Edited by jkrash

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BrianF
Posted (edited)

I hope this analysis is wrong, but was doing some math trying to guesstimate when Lake V might go ice free.  

As of today, the DNR shows only one lake in the state to be ice free: Pepin.  Pepin went out 20 days later than the median date and 4 days later than the nearest comparable cold year of 2013.  

If we extrapolate this same delay to Lake V, then we are looking at an ice out in the neighborhood of May 20th or 21st.  Not quite the record, but close - and plenty late enough to screw up a lot of plans. 

Like I said, I hope this analysis is flawed somehow. :/

Edited by BrianF

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meerkat
On 4/22/2018 at 4:36 PM, Cliff Wagenbach said:

I was out on Vermilion fishing today again. Big bay still has about the same amount of ice but the ice is a lot softer now! Small patches of 4" to 6" deep slush pockets on it.

Pike bay seemed solid when we went out but when we returned almost the entire bay had about 6" of very soft slushy ice on top!

That will be my last trip out this winter.

Talked to one Native that I saw checking a  net that he had  out under the ice in Pike Bay. He had caught around 15 walleyes and a pike today and 8 or so walleyes yesterday. Tough way to catch fish!

Clif

We need Skunkedagain to turn his wife's hair dryer full blast!!!!! Lol

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redlabguy

Brian,

Flaw: you can’t extrapolate Mother Nature.

RLG

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AlwaysFishing23

I would imagine the man made pepin connected to the sippi is open not the actual lake pepin?

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meerkat

we got a lot snow down in the twin cities than up north and temps are a lot higher than it was in 2013.   I think we will have enough open water to fish the opener.   No one needs to cancel!  I HOPE any way :)

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Big Red Lodge

some of the lake access areas might be interesting to navigate thru ad DNR is prepping the public landings

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delcecchi
5 hours ago, AlwaysFishing23 said:

I would imagine the man made pepin connected to the sippi is open not the actual lake pepin?

Pepin is natural feature of Mississippi, not man made.   Seems the Chippawa dumps a lot of sand in that causes the mississippi to back up, forming lake pepin. 

But the ice going out on pepin is probably due to runoff starting and raising the river level and flow as much as anything.    If I were to compare stuff I would look at average temp for Virginia in march and april of those late ice years compared to this year.  Throw in May for good measure.

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CigarGuy

Just talked to my neighbor up at the lake and he said one of SunkedAgain's neighbors in Black Bay couldn't get to his place going across the Partridge River-he said he almost broke thru the ice!!  I'm down a ways toward Wakemup from the narrow part going into the bay, but we had over 30" last wknd.  Looking good for some open water to fish down my way by the opener!

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delcecchi

Just for fiun I went to wunderground.com and looked at the weekly averages for 2014, 2016, and 2018 starting the beginning of march. 

2014--May 13 ice out

5  25 20 14 29 38 29 39 39 44 44 56

2016-April 25

17 38 34 30 34 25 43 47 41 52 46 49 60

2018-???

21 24 24 26 17 26 33....

Looks like we are behind 2014 with respect to getting average temp above 32 if that is significant, although the weeks don't line up exactly and we are way behind 2016 .

 

 

 

 

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AlwaysFishing23
11 hours ago, delcecchi said:

Pepin is natural feature of Mississippi, not man made.   Seems the Chippawa dumps a lot of sand in that causes the mississippi to back up, forming lake pepin. 

But the ice going out on pepin is probably due to runoff starting and raising the river level and flow as much as anything.    If I were to compare stuff I would look at average temp for Virginia in march and april of those late ice years compared to this year.  Throw in May for good measure.

Well you learn something new every day! I always thought it was mad made. Makes sense now why it formed now.

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BRULEDRIFTER
Posted (edited)

A truck broke through Birch Lake the other day in like 20fow, an ATV broke through Prairie Lake and a man lost his life. The ice is deteriorating RAPIDLY. There will be some ice chunks, but I firmly believe there will be more open water than ice by May 12.  Temps up here are forecasted near 70 for a few days next week. 

 

 

Edited by BRULEDRIFTER

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meerkat

I heard there is open water in the oak narrows by Timbuktu marina!!

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BrianF
Posted (edited)

Drifter, I hope you are right about having more open water than ice.  Was looking more closely at the average ice out dates maintained by the DNR. The avg dates for the lakes that dot the southern most part of the state are approximately one month ahead of the lakes that dot the northern part of the state like Burnt, Kab, and Vermilion.  As of this morning, none of those lakes in the southern part of the state are ice out.  Are we still a month away from open water on V then?  God I hope not, but the math isn’t helping me feel confident. 

Edited by BrianF

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SupraFishin

Saw this on Facebook:

 

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Hoey

It is my understanding that Pepin ice went out with the assist of the Coast Guard ice breaker.  

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Pat McGraw

I wouldn't read too much into the open water in Oak Narrows. There's been open water there for more than a month. There's clearly forces other than air temps or sunshine at work there. With that said, considering the data shared by delcecchi, and the current 15-day forecast I am not without hope.

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guideman

It is much warmer now and after watching 30 ice outs on Vermilion, I think Pike bay will be ice free in about a week and Big bay typically follows about 10 days later.  Warm weather and wind can melt ice faster that you can believe. There might still be some ice floating around by the opener however I plan on going fishing like always. ;)

"Ace" ;)

 

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BrianF

Another point of reference, Lake Zumbro went out today - the 2nd lake to go out in the state and the first without the help of an ice breaker (lol).  This was twenty six days later than the median ice out date and a new record for latest ice out. 

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delcecchi
1 hour ago, Cliff Wagenbach said:

My prediction is that Pike Bay will open by May,4 and Big Bay will open by May, 12!:rolleyes:

Cliff

From your lips to God's ears...

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CousinEddie

 Niles Bay had 18"-21" of ice with another 3"-6" of slush on top as of Tuesday 4/24

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guideman

Today is the average ice out date for Vermilion. I don't really think it will take more than two to three weeks before it is ice free.  I would go along with Cliffy on this one, highs near 70 degrees next week will melt a mess of ice.

"Ace" ;)

"It's just fishing man"

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monstermoose78

How is that snow today?

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