Ice-Out 2024

[SkunkedAgain]

I hate to start this thread early, but this ice doesn't have much of a chance this season. It's about half as thick as it should be, there is no snow cover to protect it from the March sun, and it continues to be abnormally warm. Let's hear those ice-out predictions.

 

I expect the smaller bays to be open by the last weekend of March with the main lake soon after, likely prior to April 1st. Earliest ice-out on record is March 28th, 2012.

 

On the plus side, the spawn be done long before fishing opener. Combine the reduced walleye harvest with the longer growing season, and this should translate into a better walleye class for the lake.

[chucker1101]

I did a lot of crappie fishing in 2012.

 

I'd say April 1 is a conservative guess. March 25 seems doable. Depends on the rain and the wind in March. 

[Brianf.]

Saw on MPR that this year had been even warmer than 2012.  If this weather pattern continues, Lake V will be ice out before the March 28th date from 2012. 

[mdogdaddy]

The DNR is already posting ice outs for lakes on the southern MN border.  Every one has set a record for the earliest. Most of them being one month ahead of the median date.

[SkunkedAgain]

I better get my ATV fixed ASAP or it isn't going to drive back across the ice to my place!

[JerkinLips]

I am taking March 27th to set the record.

 

When I was last up on February 22nd the ice was solid but only 16-18 inches.  Plus no snow cover.  Forecast looks very favorable the next 2 weeks for early ice out.  Very likely could be even earlier.  I better get up to Burntside soon before I won't be able to get on that lake, even walking.

[chucker1101]

21 hours ago, mdogdaddy said:

The DNR is already posting ice outs for lakes on the southern MN border.  Every one has set a record for the earliest. Most of them being one month ahead of the median date.

I drove on I-35 over Albert Lea Lake on Jan 5. It wasn't even partially frozen, and it's like 6-8 ft average depth or something like that. Those lakes in Sourthern Minnesota didn't even get 2 months of ice this year.

[Bobberwatcher]

I don't see ice going out til April. Some more 50 degree temps on the way, but still getting near or below freezing most nights and an extended forecast I saw is showing highs around 30 and even some single digit lows at night for the last couple weeks March. Little if any rain too. 

[Bobberwatcher]

I don't see ice going out til April. Some more 50 degree temps on the way, but still getting near or below freezing most nights and an extended forecast I saw is showing highs around 30 and even some single digit lows at night for the last couple weeks March. Little if any rain too. 

[mdogdaddy]

Prior Lake, 20miles SW of the cities went ice free yesterday.

[PSU]

I assume the warm weekend and wind did some good damage to the ice?

 

[smurfy]

i seen a picture on the book of faces from some outfitter???? had a huge pile piled up on red??? 

[SkunkedAgain]

16" of solid ice in Black Bay this weekend. There are a few spots around rockpiles that are showing open water, but anywhere away from a north shore or rockpile is in good shape. Sunset Creek next to The Landing isn't running like it normally would this time of year, but the water is open a bit next to the boat landing.

[JerkinLips]

Went to my boathouse in Stuntz Bay on Saturday and the ice looked very solid there.  No snow on the lake and the ice looked very dark and solid in the bay.  The landing (north facing but gets some sun) had a small amount of open water by shore.  Someone had a large trailer parked there so I assume they road an ATV or sled out on the lake.

 

Fished on Burntside Friday-Sunday and that ice was a very solid 13-18 inches.  Walked several miles on the lake and didn't find any marginal ice in the main body..  Walking off the North Arm Sunday I did see a lot of ice piling up on the northeast shore.  The shoreline was showing signs of melting in several areas.  The warm weather up there Monday-Wednesday will definitely help weaken the ice, but the next 10 days look very seasonal (cool) so I don't think Vermilion will clear in March.  If I could change my guess, it would be to April 7th.

'

[SkunkedAgain]

Luckily we have no rules. 

 

It doesn't look like any significant melting will occur until at least the last week of March, assuming that it gets warm again. Therefore I think that your revised guess is prudent.

 

[PSU]

Minnetonka officially went out yesterday

[Hookmaster]

The DNR uses the 90% rule. Declare ice out when the lake is 90% ice free. The Freshwater Society uses a different rule. 

"Ice-out is observed when a boat is able to safely navigate from any shore to any other shore, through any channel, and around any island without being stopped by hard ice."

The ice in Smith's Bay yesterday afternoon must not have been "hard". I didn't go up to it to check. It stretched from Big Island to Brackett's Point. Saw a fishing boat almost enter it up on plane. This ice was in Brown's Bay on Monday and blew in to Smith's with the NE wind.

[mdogdaddy]

Looks like Mille Lacs is there.

https://thereddoorresort.com/webcam/

[MikeG3Boat]

Guess of April 10th.

[SkunkedAgain]

I don't think that there has been any ice melt in the past few weeks on Vermilion. Things looked like a record and then Mother Nature swept in again.

 

I'll give my revised guess of April 21st

[Hookmaster]

A friend who has a cabin between Alex and Fergus said the lake he's on refroze. He texted me a pic from March 12th when it was open and one from 23rd when it wasn't. 

[Mike89]

lake here refroze too...  started opening again yesterday with the wet snow and wind...  very little ice left today...

[PSU]

How much snow did you get on Vermilion? 

[CigarGuy]

4 hours ago, PSU said:

How much snow did you get on Vermilion? 

With the drifting, kind of hard to tell for sure, but I'm guessing about a foot and still lightly snowing. Cook end!

[SkunkedAgain]

Black Bay had great ice before but a few spots near rockpiles where there were spots of open water. It looks like the weight of the snow has created a little lake in the middle of the bay.

 

[Brianf.]

I'm not there, so I can't tell exactly what's going on but it looks like a large area of open water developed in the last day with all of the heavy snow on the east side of wake em up Narrows. These two photos are from my Ring Camera facing north towards Niles Point.  You can see what happened with all of snow that fell in the last three days, though the open water could have been wind driven. Hard to say.
.

 

Edited March 28, 2024 by Brianf.

[SkunkedAgain]

I love how Mother Nature always keeps us guessing. I think that I've told Mrs. Skunked Again at least twice that I was going to bring the boat home soon, thereby kicking her car out of the garage for the open water season. That plan keeps getting pushed back.

 

So much for a record ice-out on Vermilion!

[leech~~]

I know right.  I pushed the sled in the corner under the cover and started getting the Dualsport bike ready, then it dumped 10" inches of snow!!  

But, by the end of the week the snow maybe gone and the bike ready to ride!  

[TomWehler]

Fun junk

Take the lil lady dancing n to dinner n a surprise of candy treat with a nice spring plant n yer set till mid summer!

That garage spot be yers!

Big Smiles n Keep on Rocken!

T

 

Maybe add a crew with fur n dbl yer odds!

 

[JerkinLips]

Was up Sunday and Monday.  Wanted to put my new (50 year-old) boat into my boathouse but there was still some ice along the shore in Stuntz Bay so I parked it in my garage.  Stuntz Bay was mostly open on Sunday afternoon with a little shore ice and a few ice chunks in the bay and by sisters islands.  Monday afternoon Big Bay was still locked in, but the main body was very dark.  No melting by the shore at McKinley Park other than the small spot right by the landing where water always flows into the lake.  Seeing that Pike Bay cleared April 6th (I believe), I think Vermilion will be ice free a week later (typical) on Saturday, April 13th.