How long will ice last

[wahoo]

Want to bring my elderly father up. I ain't no kid.  To fish pike in March.  Any predictions on how long we can drive out. He cannot walk far. 

Thanks

[JBMasterAngler]

Judging by the 10 day forecast in Baudette, you'll be driving vehicles well into march 

[401TE]

There's not that much ice this year JB. 15-20" on the south shore. It could go very fast like it did 3 or 4 years ago. Just depends on the weather. 

[Ballyhoo]

No one can predict into March at this point.  If it hits 40+ for 3-4 days, it all could go.  The lack of ice this year will make it very different to predict as everyone is used to how fast 30-40" of ice goes out, not 15-20".

[fivebucks]

The ice blew up around Gull Rock and Dale's has closed his access for now at least.  A friend was there Saturday morning and the guy at Dale's booth said there were whitecaps on a 60 yard wide area of water north of Gull Rock.  I think this year anything can happen.  I have a trip planned the 2nd weekend of March so I have my fingers crossed.

Edited February 22, 2016 by fivebucks

[Monkster]

Same here, sleeper booked for March 6th to 9th! Hopeful for colder weather so we CAN drive out.

[FishWhisper]

I remember about 4 years ago when we go drive the boat to the main lake in March, fishing was excellent! I wouldn't mind that either??

[Bandit155]

We fished out of Morris Point this past weekend. 12"-18" of ice and not much snow after the rain Friday. They are hoping to make it to the second week of March if they get some colder weather soon. Road had 2' of ice and was in great shape. Fishing was slow. Nine fair sized saugers was all the two of us kept for two days of fishing.

[Hoey]

On 2/22/2016 at 2:19 PM, fivebucks said:

The ice blew up around Gull Rock and Dale's has closed his access for now at least.

This happened Friday afternoon.  The ice had to go somewhere after being warmed up a bit.  The crack started as a pressure ridge/heave then collapsed.  It extends past Arnesen's 12 mile trail to the west.  We crossed the heave with sleds when it was 5 feet high and in a perfect tepee shape.  I walked it and jumped on it before proceeding with the sleds.  It sure created much angst among the operators and guides in the area.  One of my neighbors went out Saturday morning and returned right away indicating the dangers.  We played it safe on Saturday and fished Cookers.  Arnesen's had over 75 houses to move and they were busy all day.  On Sunday we went west towards 12 mile, crossed there, followed the trail to 12, then up to 16 mile without much issue.  

[Walleye Inn]

very nice post, we were out of zippel in 30  ft very  slow catching should have been out a little deeper in the mud. Oh well my son and I had a lot of fun watched some tv and then put the house away. glow red jigs and plain red hook worked the best. Good Luck to everyone!!

 

[slammer]

I was hoping Cropduster would get some pics of the freeze up this year but I guess not .  Maybe he can get some of the spring break up!  Anyone know if he is still around or still flying?

Edited February 24, 2016 by slammer

[Hoey]

I just checked the satellite images and found the most recent is Feb 17th.  A clear shot may show this crack.  

[CropDuster301]

Yep I'm still around, and still flying- I'll see what I can do this spring, time got away from me this fall/ early winter and I never made it up with the plane to get you an ice report

[ANYFISH2]

Well, we can't let that happen again, cropduster!

[skh]

A couple mornings ago we got a few inches of wet snow, now quite a bit of water coming up in many places. The long range temp forecast has warmed up now so that's not good.  They took a couple nights of -teens away.  We are hoping to be back the second week in March but real hard to plan what you will be able to get out with if at all. Some Northern fishing going on but doesn't sound real active yet.

[wahoo]

Thanks too all very much.  Always next year. 

Wahoo

[SHAWSKI]

We just come off the ice in the swift ditch area of south shore, muskeg bay. I measured 20" clear ice with snow cover varying from 3 to 9 inches. We were tip up fishing in aprox 10' of water (to top of ice)

  Frozen smelt seemed to win slightly over live suckers. All the pike we caught (only about 6 total) had what I would call "soft jaw" I don't know the correct term for it but it is what I have always believed to be a change out on the teeth, an annual thing that seems to happen around Feb every year. No teeth to speak of, probably hungry but not aggressive at all with the bite. 

 

I would guess another 2 weeks before that changes enough to turn the bite up a few notches. And not sure what the ice will be like in 2 weeks. I haven't looked at any extended forecasts. The typical signs of the end nearing have not occurred yet, we still have unmelted snow cover. Usually the snow will all turn to water over the ice, then the ice floats a bit draining the water, then the ice turns punky/white, then breaks up shortly after.

 

None of that has started yet but like everybody else mentioned, I believe it will happen fast this year, we are about a foot shy on ice thickness and that's a lot.

[eyeowegian]

I'm supposed to come up March 9-13.  And the forecast looks like 30's and 40's before that and rain/snow the whole time we are going to be there.  I sure hope it can hold up!

[CANOPY SAM]

eye,

With all due respect buddy, there is no way you can trust a forecast that far out.  We are looking at a real warm up by this coming weekend, but I wouldn't put much stock in the precip forecasts for almost 2 weeks from now.  And I'd be awfully surprised to see the weather STAY warm this early in the year.  It's going to be well below zero up here tonight!

Another thing to keep in mind, and I do this myself a LOT now that we have the tech at our fingertips to get the info, you should be looking at the weather for Warroad and Baudette, MN whenever you can.  Much of the time, whatever you see forecast for "Minnesota" in general, will be quite different way up at the Canadian Border.  I'd venture that the temps up on the lake are typically anywhere from 5-15 degrees cooler than the remainder of the state on any given day.

We may see temps around 40 degrees here in the Red River Valley (Fargo/Grand Forks and surrounding communities) and it will still be below freezing on the lake only 70 miles away.  I think that HUGE sheet of ice actually affects the temps around it.

Now, that being said, we could certainly still see the lake ice go quickly this spring.  It is unusually thin this year, and it won't likely last long, but we won't really know how long until we actually see what happens over the next few weeks.  Make sure you're watching the weather reports for northern Minnesota, and preferably Warroad or Baudette.  That should give you a much better idea of what is happening on the lake.

Personally, I'd be pretty surprised if our ice is going bad by March 13th.  As long as we don't get any significant rainfall we should be okay for a while yet.

[eyeowegian]

Canopy, I hope you're right.  But the closer it gets, the worse the forecast seems to be.  In Baudette, it currently says up to 1/4" of rain Tuesday the 8th and another 1/4 wednesday.  I know that can change, but it doesn't look good.

[JBMasterAngler]

As I type, the temp in Baudette is 15 below zero  I am getting nervous though, as I'm planning on being up there that same weekend. I've been checking the forecast religiously, and as already mentioned, the closer it gets, the more the temps seem to increase. As long as the roads stay open, that's what matters, as we're not renting a house. 

[Ballyhoo]

Well put Canopy.  Another thing to consider is 18" of honeycombed ice is not safe.  That is what we will be dealing with.  Typically we have 30" + of ice and if that is honeycombed, it will still hold a vehicle.  I am still hearing reports of spotty ice that is 13-15" thick.  If you run across one of those when it is honeycombed the outcome might not be good.  I know it was -10 to -20 this morning depending on where you were in the north country but it was also close to 50 in Bemidji last weekend.  That lake took a beating on Saturday.

[CANOPY SAM]

All good points, and I completely understand your concerns.  However, just to reiterate what I said last night, tonight's temp forecasts out of Fargo for tomorrow, 35 degrees in Fargo, 22 degrees in Warroad.

That being said, the temps are looking to go stupid warm next week.  It's going to get well above freezing on the lake, and possibly for several days in a row.  That sucks.

As long as some snow cover remains, and the ice doesn't get completely exposed to the sun, hopefully it will hold out for a few more weeks.  I simply can't accept that it will get this warm, and REMAIN this warm, for very long THIS early in March.  And let's just keep our fingers crossed that that precip in the forecast comes as light snow on the lake and not as rain!

Again, if we do lose our ice really early this year....at least we can fish for pike out of the boat!!!!  Maybe?

 

[slammer]

Any open  water on the East end of the Rainy yet?  If that opens up fast the south shore would be toast.

Just looked at satellite pics.  Can't see much of anything happening on the river.  Ice is sure getting dark through the mid section of the state and south.

Edited March 2, 2016 by slammer

[huntercj]

Still making ice at Morson ontario been at the lake last couple of days very cold minus 22  below zero this morning. It's not getting as warm as there forecasting.  Definitely no melting here. Plenty of snow suppose to get 3 to 6 inches more on Friday. When I came up there were several trucks on the rainy 

Moved a fair amount of new snow on Tuesday when I got to the cabin.

[eyeowegian]

How bad did it take a beating today?

[huntercj]

 Just got of the lake ice is fine snow dropped some, Made for some nice snowmobiling drifts weren't so hard.

[curt quesnell]

We went straight north out of Long Point Saturday all the way to Garden Island and caught the trail there the cross country was only slightly slower than the trail.  Very nice conditions out there in most places now.  Later this week, temps in the mid 50s or better will take us to the next step.

[CANOPY SAM]

Just a quick update.

Forecast up here is calling for 65 on Friday, and possibly in the low 60's on Saturday.  Those are the predicted temps for the Grand Forks, ND area.  They are expecting to smash record highs for this time of year.

That being said, it probably won't get quite that warm up around the lake.  There is still a fairly strong snow base up there, and the ice is still fairly solid, so the snow and ice alone will keep the surface temps a little cooler.  However, the forecast also looks to bring mainly bright sunny skies, and along with those temps (I'd expect temps in the high 40's to low 50's on the lake) I don't expect the snow will hold up for long, which will end up bringing significant runoff onto the lake from the regional streams, ditches and rivers.

If you're planning on coming up for some late ice fishing you better get up here quick.  The ice will likely hold up for a little while longer yet, but it's going to be a real mess out there by this weekend.  We'll just have to see what happens to the landings following these warm temps.

The extended forecast looks to bring above normal temps to the area, and once the snow base melts the ice will start to go quickly after.  I'm just going to throw this out there, but if these predicted temps actually hit the high 40's into the 50's, and it doesn't get below freezing at night, I'd probably wager the landings are going be rotted out by next weekend (not this weekend, but next), maybe even mid way thru next week?  Just a guess, but that's pretty doggone warm for this time of year.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but it does look like it's going to be a pretty short ice season this year.  The silver lining is we should be able to chase those big pike in the boat this spring!!!!

[Walleyehooker]

I'm supposed to be headed up there tomorrow and to Oak Island on Thursday but I'm thinking snowmobile travel isn't going to be good and a lot of slush. Going to call Oak in the morning and see what they say. What do you think?