I wonder where the state line is?

[sticknstring]

That's assuming those estimates for Zone 3 are remotely accurate, which isn't likely. If there was only 0-1 deer per hunter in Zone 3, they wouldn't still have early antlerless areas in spots, would have minimal crop damage, and there would have been more hunter's choice or even lottery areas like much of the rest of the state in the same deer/hunter value.

Here's the DPSM for the same zones. An arm's throw away in the same area of habitat and you have 2-3x the deer. This data is provided by both state DNR offices. And this is in some of the best areas of MN. Imagine what the rest of the state looks like. And nothing is amiss?

MN areas

339 5 (dpsm)

341 12

342 14

345 10

346 16

WI areas

60A 16

61 43

59D 30

74A 26

[SmellEsox]

And MN and WI still produced 1.8 billion bu of corn combined. Sounds like deer have a huge impact on the world's supply of corn.

[mntatonka]

Here's the DPSM for the same zones. An arm's throw away in the same area of habitat and you have 2-3x the deer. This data is provided by both state DNR offices. And this is in some of the best areas of MN. Imagine what the rest of the state looks like. And nothing is amiss?

MN areas

339 5 (dpsm)

341 12

342 14

345 10

346 16

WI areas

60A 16

61 43

59D 30

74A 26

Like I said, that's assuming you believe MN's numbers for those areas.

Here's another reason those areas of WI have higher densities: LAND LEASING.

[Musky Buck]

Interesting. All I know is Wisc. is habitat central and somehow they must come through winter in decent shape to carry that many deer, must be enough browse etc to carry that and we can in many places in the state, how we carry good numbers let's say in the western part of the state where all I see in Wilkin County for example is field and irrigation and a few acres of trees surrounding farmyards ? You want to spend the winter out there ? Does Wisconsin have a Wilkin county or 20 ? I think the wind chill really punishes the western part of the state and by the time the wind hits even east central MN it's generally 1/2 of what western MN gets so Wisc. being timber doesn't quite suffer the brutal wind chills that west of I 94 does, open country for example try coming out of Isle Bay on Lake Mille-Lacs with a 3-5 MPH from the NW and you are white capped to the hilt, found that out last summer, wind breaks are good for deer. IDK lol If we didn't have rivers and creeks man we wouldn't have squat for deer, can't plow that up.

[Jameson]

...If there was only 0-1 deer per hunter in Zone 3, they wouldn't still have early antlerless areas in spots, would have minimal crop damage, and there would have been more hunter's choice or even lottery areas like much of the rest of the state in the same deer/hunter value.

Show a correlation between hunter/deer and deer area designation first. There should be a very direct one, IMO. The DNR is making up deer area designation at this point just as much as they are deer population estimates. Just using whatever numbers make them money.

[UNDBowhunter]

Good points stickandstring. Again, no matter how you go about it, MN has alot lower deer density than Wisconsin. That is what I was trying to get at with Northern MN zones vs. Northern Wisconsin. Its not even close....and the MN DNR Spring estimate should be lower because of last spring winter kill.

I wonder what the deer density will be after this winter!!! I hope that people realize what the potential winter kill might be this year.

[sticknstring]

I wonder what the deer density will be after this winter!!! I hope that people realize what the potential winter kill might be this year.

No doubt about it, it's going to be ugly. We haven't hit bottom yet, that's for sure. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 150k harvest next year.

[SmellEsox]

I've been thinking about these pre-fawn densities. You should be able to backcalculate an estimate of density by dividing the known buck and doe kill by the proportion killed. In other words, if you think 60% of your bucks get killed every year, divide the buck kill by 0.6. That should give you an approximation of the buck population. Do the same for the does. For example, if you think 40% of the does in your PA get shot, divide the total number shot by 0.4 and it should give you the total number of does pre-hunt. Add the buck and doe estimates together and you should have the pre-fawn population. Then divide the estimate by the total sq. miles of the PA and it should give you a pre-fawn dpsm. Does that make sense or is that way over-simplifying things?

Here's a real life example:

PA 215

2012 buck harvest - 1311

2012 doe harvest - 1095

If 60% of the bucks in the population are getting killed then the total buck population would be 1311/.6=2185

If 40% of the does are being killed then the doe population would be 1095/.4=2738

2185+2738=4923

PA 215=730 sq mi so 4923/730 = 6.7 dpsm

[92GSteve]

As someone who spends a lot of time in the woods between the National Forest in north central WI and the farm country in western WI I thought I'd chime in. The predators and weather have not been good to the deer numbers over here either. Throw in the years of free or $2 antlerless tags in "herd control" units that Donbo mentioned and the 24+ number seems laughable. WI and MN are both large states and it's tough to compare the southern and northern parts but rest assured that not all of WI is like Buffalo County. DNR has a tough job trying to keep everyone happy that's for sure. Most would love to see the deer numbers that we had 10-15 years ago.

[NorthwoodsMap]

Hey guys - I haven't been on this forum in awhile.....

Someone told me that my maps are starting a good chat on here.

The updated map is on our facebook page.

Not sure if the admins will let me post the map on here?

[B-man715]

If you guys really want a broken heart, google Pope and Young Map.........

[hockeybc69]

Nothing says you cant post it. The other versions have been posted with no issues.

Lets see it.

[NorthwoodsMap]

Updated map:

Same map as above - different legend (classification) values

[smsmith]

No doubt about it, it's going to be ugly. We haven't hit bottom yet, that's for sure. Wouldn't be surprised to see a 150k harvest next year.

I think 150K may be overly optimistic for next year...and maybe for 2015 as well

[Bear55]

That is what I was trying to get at with Northern MN zones vs. Northern Wisconsin. Its not even close....and the MN DNR Spring estimate should be lower because of last spring winter kill.

We probably need to compare northern WI with central MN, different habitat and longer winters when you move into the upper 1/3 of MN. You can sometimes see a month or more longer winters in far northern Minnesota. Even with the snow being at the same levels the length of the snow pack can make a bigger difference on winter survival. Last year was kind of an extreme example but the snow was gone in central MN and there was still a foot+ in the far north.

[Xplorer]

Having hunted zone 28 in Wisconsin (Hurley area) at my inlaws for 10 years and hunting north of Cloquet, the climate is not the same. As far as snow goes, there is the "snowbelt area" that exceeds our average, and a much bigger swath that is outside of the snowbelt that receives less snow and warmer temps on average.

Here's a real life situation. My inlaws live in Iron Belt, in the heart of the snowbelt. Their cabin is located 10 miles almost straight south of the house, yet receives on average 1/2 of the snowfall each winter as their house does. Numbers are down over there too, FIL is retired and bowhunts, gun hunts and muzzie hunts. Basically from Sept 15th to Dec 15th he is in the woods and he has seen numbers plummet in recent years.

[Bear55]

The snow belt can certainly make a difference but you can still have a much shorter/milder winter in that area. Cloquet might be "up north" to some people but its really kind of a in-between area and you are just starting to touch the northern 1/3 of the state. You still have a 150+ mile drive to Canada and there can be a big difference in winter severity when you are talking 50 miles north of hwy2 vs 50 miles further south.

[smsmith]

MN deer are obviously much "tougher" than WI deer.

Quote from WI DNR

"The DNR uses snow and temperature readings from dozens of sites to form a Winter Severity Index. Each site accumulates one point each day the temperature is 0 degrees Fahrenheit or colder and one point each day the snow is 18 inches or deeper. The data are recorded Dec. 1 through April 30.

At the end of the season, if the points total less than 50, it's considered a mild winter; 50 to 79, moderate; 80 to 99, severe; more than 100, very severe."

From this article - http://www.jsonline.com/sports/outdoors/...-243891181.html

Quote from Leslie McInenly (MN DNR)

“At this point in the year the WSI only gives us an indication of the potential for a severe winter,” said Leslie McInenly, big game program leader for the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. “That said, the index numbers are above the average mid-season levels for much of northern Minnesota but not as high as the severe winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97. In general, I’ve heard from northern area managers that they start seeing increased fawn mortality somewhere between 130-150 (moderate-severe) and adult mortality up around 180.”

From this article - http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/event/article/id/290329/group/sports/

So while WI deer are feeling the impact of a "very severe" winter with a WSI of 100, our MN deer are still not even in the "moderate" range. Sure...that makes sense to me

[Jameson]

MN deer are obviously much "tougher" than WI deer....

Realize you're being sarcastic here, but they just might be.

I have had probably a half-dozen guys who are familiar with deer hunting south of Duluth comment to me after hunting up north for the first time that the does they saw were just HUGE.

[smsmith]

If there is a separate sub-species of deer in northern MN than there is in northern WI, I could accept that (though I doubt the discrepancy in WSI would still be as large as it is).

However, for Leslie to say that fawns here "start" to experience increased mortality at 130-150...I find that to be pure b.s. Fawns in WI start to experience increased mortality in the upper 80's to low 90's. So a fawn in northern MN has the ability to withstand a minimum of 40 extra WSI days than a fawn in Superior, WI? That's reasonable?

I suppose there's the possibility that MN deer have a chance of being a genetic combo of Odocoileus virginianus borealis and Odocoileus virginianus docotensis. However, I'm not sure the latter would lead to any larger bodies or more winter "hardiness".

One of the largest bodied deer I've seen was a doe just north of Vermillion Bay, ON. I'm sure the reason for her massive size was age.....

[Getanet]

Ssmith, is there anything you do agree with the DNR on? If they told you it was cold today, would you argue with them too?

As much time as you spend critiquing everything thing they do, every model they use and every decision they make, have you ever considered applying for a job there? Whatever you do for a day job, you're obviously not as passionate about it as you are about how the deer herd is managed...

[Musky Buck]

What about the other state lines so we can add 20 more pages to this topic, ND,SD and Iowa ? We look at Wisconsin and it's ideal whitetail habitat, tons of farms spread among tons of timber, are you really surprised by their deer numbers or is it since they have a wolf population which is spreading into Illinois and the large volume of gun hunters in Wisc. how do they do it ? Look to the reasons why ND and SD don't have deer populations like Wisconsin ? Why shouldn't they, low people populations, tons of ag, so why not ? Winter and Spring can be brutal on plains deer, drifting can create travel/stress/calorie nightmares for deer in the plains. Mild back to back and deer numbers grow, brutalness and they fall. What is hard for me to figure out dialing back into MN here is in 1983 zone 4 was 3 days bucks only first weekend and a 2 day apply for an antlerless the 2nd weekend. 1984 it was 2 days first weekend apply for doe or 4 days the 2nd weekend apply for doe. The issue is this in 2013. We were a 2 deer area, area 240, no applying for a doe tag so you could take a buck/doe combo and party hunt for more, a doe/doe combo and party hunt for more, or a doe/fawn combo party hunt for more, a buck and fawn combo party hunt for more and then muzzleload/bow hunt some more. The issue is this, in 1984 there were way way way more deer around in zone 240 and we were applying for a doe permit, you had 1 metal tag in your pocket so this year with way less deer around then 1984, you can get 2 tags and a longer season, no applying necessary, that to me makes zero sense. It was tradition to drive around mid-October and count the hundreds of deer we'd see on a few back roads around some of permit area 240, I still drive that route today and I know they're more nocturnal today than then, but there's just no comparison, we'd see monster bucks and bucks of all sizes, does, fawns, the best fields just caked with deer and we're applying for a doe permit ? Today 2 deer ? What ? In 1984 at grandpa's farm there'd be 80-120 wintering deer there, today I hope there's 40 and many farms were that way then and this way now, idk. And this smaller herd(s) are still being hunted right up until next November 8th by a wolf population that didn't exist back then so I don't get that at all, change in philosophy and goals are set lower idk, how we were 2 deer last year I'll never know.

[SmellEsox]

Wolf population spreading into Illinois?! Really?! I can see one wandering there, but they ain't gonna stay there. No way!

[smsmith]

Ssmith, is there anything you do agree with the DNR on? If they told you it was cold today, would you argue with them too?

As much time as you spend critiquing everything thing they do, every model they use and every decision they make, have you ever considered applying for a job there? Whatever you do for a day job, you're obviously not as passionate about it as you are about how the deer herd is managed...

Okay. Just take what they hand you. I'll focus my efforts elsewhere. I'm semi-retired...so I can use my time as I choose. I choose to improve the deer herd in MN.

[Musky Buck]

10 4 smell esox, not packs but certainly plenty of sightings and reminders to hunters to not shoot em. google wolves in Illinois. Then don't shoot any does unless they're wounded or sick smsmith until further notice.

[Bear55]

I have had probably a half-dozen guys who are familiar with deer hunting south of Duluth comment to me after hunting up north for the first time that the does they saw were just HUGE.

That is because we can't shoot does up north for fear of whipping out what herd we have left. Lots of old mature does running around these days, they just need a little help to get the population back up. Winter hasn't been cooperating lately.

[Jameson]

...That is because we can't shoot does up north for fear of whipping out what herd we have left. Lots of old mature does running around these days, they just need a little help to get the population back up. Winter hasn't been cooperating lately.

These hunters are coming from areas with very limited doe kill also, namely the lottery areas of the state that are lottery every year, and the metro. These hunters have killed 'southern' does aged upto 8.5.

[Bear55]

Then I guess we just have big deer up here, the bucks would be large too if they got to live that long.

[Bear55]

Wolf population spreading into Illinois?! Really?! I can see one wandering there, but they ain't gonna stay there. No way!

Not sure on the exact time periods but in the past northern WI and the UP of Michigan didn't have a wolf population either, the migrated from northern MN and Canada. Eventually the wolves will get there but I have no idea how long that might take. I doubt the population will be as thick as MN but I am more than willing to share our wolves with other states.

[Xplorer]

They are there, and have been for many years. Estimates for WI range up to close to 1000 in the state now. Wolves will follow the food.

I'm lucky in that I live/hunt in one of the "21+" MN zones, but even here we have seen a reduction in numbers the past few years. I was still able to take up to 5 deer last season (I took none, spent the limited time I had trying to get my 11 yo son his first deer). I hope that the area is at least dropped down to managed or even HC for next year.