2013-2014 Winter Severity Index

[smsmith]

March is here. Minus 24 this morning and snow up to the crotch of a tall Swede. High forecast for minus 10 to minus 15. What now?

Let the winterkill begin

In a meeting with Paul Telander Thursday he indicated that this winter will be "much more severe" than last winter. I don't know how he can state that seeing as winter's impact isn't really felt until the end of March and into April. That said, if the long range forecast is accurate....he's probably going to be correct.

[minky]

I am hoping the long range forecast will be wrong.

If we could even get a two week span of above average temps it would help.

[LABS4ME]

Not a 30 degree high temperature in next two weeks.....

Hmmm... Been hearing the exact opposite... Long range is continual warming trend beginning mid-week...

Just checked accuweather for Parker's Prairie... 7 out of next 14 days above freezing. A few in the 40 range.... Gonna hold onto that for now! This last blast is a real blow... Let's hope they get through next 3 days....

Good Luck!

Ken

[kkahmann]

You guys know them weathermen all drink.

[certified jumbo]

Ken I hope you are correct. I don't check avcuweather. But did and you are correct they are showing a major warmup end of next week. 40s and even close to 50. However, everybody else is showing much cooler temps than that

[smsmith]

Hmmm... Been hearing the exact opposite... Long range is continual warming trend beginning mid-week...

Just checked accuweather for Parker's Prairie... 7 out of next 14 days above freezing. A few in the 40 range.... Gonna hold onto that for now! This last blast is a real blow... Let's hope they get through next 3 days....

Check out that long range forecast now. Mine for Long Prairie has 3 of the next 14 with temps above 32, of those 41 is the highest temp

[Musky Buck]

Was on quite the tour this past weekend, definitely saw some Mille Lacs County deer that looked to be about done, saw other deer trying to dig through a beanfield that had been plowed last fall, those deer were in Ottertail County and why they were digging in our neighbors field when there's 0 or minimal food there I don't know. Let's say some warmer temps come they always do about now, is there enough nutrition to do them any good ? Saw a lot of deer, most looked very stressed, the snow pack is rock rock solid.

[hockeybc69]

Quote:

why they were digging in our neighbors field when there's 0 or minimal food there I don't know.

Desperate times require desperate measures maybe??

50th day of below zero temps recorded today for this winter.....

[smsmith]

50th day of below zero temps recorded today for this winter.....

66th here in L.P. according to accuweather

[Musky Buck]

No doubt HockeyBC, this was Friday night in brutal wind, they were exposed and digging down in a plowed beanfield, I hunt that field otherwise I wouldn't know what was under it, maybe 30 of them, seemed like the standing corn deer that found it looked very good, very frisky and healthy, deer that got pinned by weather/snow or never found those fields are the ones that I wonder about, it is what it is and there is and will be some sort of a % of the deer that don't make it. When I think about deer feeding and do you think there's maybe 10,000 people/farmers that do it maybe in MN that might be too high I guess ? If so and they each have 10 deer coming daily, that is getting 1/8 of the deer population through winter, if the average is 20 deer per feeder then it's 2/8ths or 200K that get help making it through. Either way, I hope we get a better winter next year and thank heavens for wet corn this fall or it would be worse overall.

[JIvers]

I hope none of you are pinning your hopes for the deer herd on Accu Weather's long range forecasts, because you're probably going to be disappointed.

There is a reason weather.gov, the NOAA's official site, gives only general predictions for more than two or three days out, and nothing at all beyond a week. That way, they're wrong a lot less of the time.

[slimngrizzly]

Warm or cold, sooner or later.... there ain't a thing any of us can do about it!

Id say hope for the best and don't assume everything is dead till you go out and find carcasses everywhere this spring. Whether you have 99% or 15% survival, your best bet is to make sure THOSE deer do well! Make sure you have your mineral sites up to snuff now or ASAP. If and when we do get some relief, the deer that are still upright and breathing will be happy to get any help they can! Till then be confident, they're tough buggers!

[hockeybc69]

Quote:

Make sure you have your mineral sites up to snuff now or ASAP.

I sure wish minerals alone would keep me alive.... the fact is, they wont. Deer need food just like we do....

Quote:

there ain't a thing any of us can do about it!

There is nothing I can do to help my localized deer? Odd, I have food plots and recently placed alfalfa bales out at our hunting land and deer are there eating the food.

And dont start shaming me for feeding deer. The farmer up the road about a mile has deer eating out of his round bales and a corn crib regularly.

[smsmith]

Yep ^^^

Pretty sure the tons of brassica forage I provided my local deer from last summer through the time they were covered with too much snow made a difference. Also pretty sure the 1400 lbs of shell corn I've fed them since early January has made a difference too. I'll keep feeding them til the snow pack is gone.

Mineral sites are fun to do for getting trailcam pics and may provide deer with something....but they certainly do not help a deer in spring recover from a bad winter.

[LABS4ME]

I hope none of you are pinning your hopes for the deer herd on Accu Weather's long range forecasts, because you're probably going to be disappointed.

There is a reason weather.gov, the NOAA's official site, gives only general predictions for more than two or three days out, and nothing at all beyond a week. That way, they're wrong a lot less of the time.

Nope... Still pinning my hopes on it. I realize they are wrong more than they are right, but they (along with all weather outlets) are still trending warmer temps for the next 2 weeks. There are a couple of cool days in the mid to upper teens, but I'll still take those over single digits. There is a trend beginning right now to fight back towards more average temps... we may stay alittle below them, but 25 vs. 35 is a minor differnece as opposed to 25 and -5. The deer That are left will be less stressed with the upcoming temps than the ones they just got through...

Good Luck!

Ken

[smsmith]

I'm sure hoping accuweather's long range is close to accurate. Right now it looks like a real nice warm up come the second week of April or so.

[LABS4ME]

I've read the forecasts 3+ weeks out is just a mix of trend and averages... so I try to not look out past 2 weeks... which is a big stretch. 3-5 days being about as far as they can legitamately see and still be about 50-50!

Good Luck!

Ken

[smsmith]

I've read the forecasts 3+ weeks out is just a mix of trend and averages... so I try to not look out past 2 weeks... which is a big stretch. 3-5 days being about as far as they can legitamately see and still be about 50-50!

Good Luck!

Ken

Push comes to shove, there's really no reason to look past 3-5 days (as previously stated)....that doesn't mean a guy can't hope

[minky]

Yep, I will take highs 20s to 30s any day over negative temps!

[slimngrizzly]

I sure wish minerals alone would keep me alive.... the fact is, they wont. Deer need food just like we do....

There is nothing I can do to help my localized deer? Odd, I have food plots and recently placed alfalfa bales out at our hunting land and deer are there eating the food.

And dont start shaming me for feeding deer. The farmer up the road about a mile has deer eating out of his round bales and a corn crib regularly.

Ya...LOL... I guess I meant as far as the weather goes...

Im in the same boat, you'd have a tough time finding anyone that feeds anymore bales, plots, or piles than myself as well. "My" deer are looking great and I have no worries.

As far as panicking that the herd throughout greater MN is in trouble, I say there nothing you can do about it. Take care of your locals if you can. But you cant be feeding every deer in MN.

[hockeybc69]

Agreed....

[JIvers]

I've read the forecasts 3+ weeks out is just a mix of trend and averages... so I try to not look out past 2 weeks... which is a big stretch. 3-5 days being about as far as they can legitamately see and still be about 50-50!

Good Luck!

Ken

Yeah, every year I catch myself starting to check those ridiculous thirty and forty-five day forecasts in early October, hoping to get an idea of what way the wind will be out of on deer opener. That's how I know they are never accurate. Yet I still keep checking them through first ice...

[smsmith]

Updated WSI map

http://files.dnr.state.mn.us/recreation/hunting/deer/wsi_dpa_map14.pdf

[hockeybc69]

Well, under last years scale the DNR used, we would be beyond severe at this point. But with the updated scale we are still only mild.

[Bear55]

Pretty brutal in the NE, might have to adjust plans a bit and spend more time in other parts of the state.

[lakevet]

We have hunted the same area over 100 years, not changing now. There always are some deer around. Just have to adjust tactics and spend more time In the woods.

One thing now is a 70 pound dog can run on top of the crust we have. That may have potential for trouble making by wolves and peoples pets.

[certified jumbo]

Up to 12 inches in northern Minnesota tonight, followed by cold.....

[not_nuf_time]

Wow, congrats to you for being that mobile to hunt that deep in your life,

[Coach]

I was out on my piece of land north of Mora last Saturday, 2+ feet of snow yet. I found 3 dead yearlings, two were brought down, one just laid down. What was interesting was neither of the two that were brought down was eaten that much? Is that normal? I put a camera over one of them, I want to see what comes back. My neighbor said that he found one yearling also.

[Getanet]

That is odd. Think it could be dogs instead of wolves? I hunt north of Mora as well - don't like to hear that.