2022 Vermilion Ice-Over Prediction

[JerkinLips]

Vermilion web cams are beginning to show ice so it is time to get excited for the hard-water season.  A lot of Pike Bay looks frozen, and Spring Bay looks to be about half frozen.  Looking at the current weather forecast and considering recent ice-over dates, I am predicting that Lake Vermilion will freeze over (Big Bay completely frozen) on Friday morning, November 18th.  I think some people will be out ice fishing during Thanksgiving week, but I will patiently wait until mid-week after Thanksgiving (November 28-30).

 

 

[SkunkedAgain]

Crap! That is not the news that I was looking for in terms of a long-range forecast. Black Bay is frozen over too, now with (I assume) an inch or so of ice and now snow piling on top of it. We are likely going to have slush all winter in the small bays.

 

It's good news for getting the rest of the lake frozen though.

[JerkinLips]

Still open at Hibbing Point (and I assume Big Bay also) so my initial prediction for ice-over today was wrong.  Looks too windy tonight to freeze over so now I think Vermilion will completely freeze Saturday over night when the temp/winds drop to 1°F/3mph.  Temps will stay 15-30°F for 6 days after that with slight chances of snow, so I think the ice will form solid and I will get out fishing the week after Thanksgiving.  I love early-season crystal clear ice in the portable so I hope we get lucky.

[Brianf.]

 

The Ring cam at our cabin still shows open water as far as the eye can see on Niles.  I’m hoping you are right with the new ice prediction, but the LT forecast after the cold weekend ahead doesn’t seem very conducive to rapid ice making.  Might have to push our early Dec trip out a week for safety sake.  Appreciate your updates though!  Keep ‘em coming..

Edited November 18, 2022 by Brianf.

[SkunkedAgain]

Pic of Head o Lakes today. It will still be a little while. 

[JerkinLips]

Not looking good for the week after Thanksgiving.  Maybe I will fish in Pike Bay.

[JerkinLips]

Boy did I blow this predictions.  Maybe it was wishful thinking.  The main lake is still open and the current forecast (2nd set of temps for Nov 23-27) shown below doesn't indicate that it will freeze over in the next few days.  The forecast 10 days ago (1st set of temps for Nov 23-27) showed temps about 10°F lower than the current forecast.  My new prediction is Vermilion will completely freeze-over Wednesday, Nov 30.  Hopefully we won't get heavy snow before we get some solid ice.  Think I will wait until the week of Dec 5-9 to venture out.

 

[smurfy]

Yep good old mother nature sure can throw a wrench in plans!?

[StateofHockey]

Warm weather this weekend has worsened ice conditions. Seeing substantial water probably on top of ice but I'm not going out to test that. Definitely open patches off Moccasin point boat landing. View Sunday morning looking northwest off end of Moccasin point.

[StateofHockey]

Given snow in forecast and no subzero temps I don't expect much better ice conditions by next weekend 

[SkunkedAgain]

I'm still hoping for a sunny warm-up to melt all of the existing snow off of the existing ice, and then an arctic blast. After that, I'm hoping for a giant walleye to hop out of the lake and filet itself before skinny dipping in some batter and then relaxing in a hot pan of oil in my kitchen.

[JerkinLips]

Earlier this morning it looked like Vermilion froze over last night but now I see open water on the Hibbing Point webcam.  The strong winds must have opened the lake back up.  Tonight the temps drop to single digits and the wind dies down by 5am so it will freeze over tonight.  Expecting 1-2" of snow on Friday with high winds so hopefully the snow will blow off the new ice.  Saturday-Thursday looks very cold with no more snow, so the main lake should get a solid freeze.  Some are ice fishing in Stuntz Bay already, and some braver than I may walk out from McKinley Park this weekend.  I'm going to wait until the end of next week to venture out, although it will be very cold.

[SkunkedAgain]

Luckily we don't have large open areas of ice that break away, such as on Red Lake.

 

Stay safe and warm.

[travis_td]

On 11/30/2022 at 9:03 AM, JerkinLips said:

Earlier this morning it looked like Vermilion froze over last night but now I see open water on the Hibbing Point webcam.  The strong winds must have opened the lake back up.  Tonight the temps drop to single digits and the wind dies down by 5am so it will freeze over tonight.  Expecting 1-2" of snow on Friday with high winds so hopefully the snow will blow off the new ice.  Saturday-Thursday looks very cold with no more snow, so the main lake should get a solid freeze.  Some are ice fishing in Stuntz Bay already, and some braver than I may walk out from McKinley Park this weekend.  I'm going to wait until the end of next week to venture out, although it will be very cold.

 

Hi there, I am making sure that this is the location that folks will be posting updates for Ice Fishing on Lake Vermilion this winter (2022).  I think so but want to make sure as I plan on trying to get out next weekend, December 8-11.

[SkunkedAgain]

I hope that you weigh under 40lbs

[Brianf.]

^^^Ice that bad??

[JerkinLips]

1 hour ago, Brianf. said:

^^^Ice that bad??

A couple of Facebook posters on Lake Vermilion Cabin Owners group said that there was still open water in Big Bay Friday Morning.  I am guessing that they may be talking about Oak Narrows.  I'm staying with my original freeze-over date of Thursday, December 1.

 

Somebody I know who went out fishing from McKinley Park Saturday said that Big Bay was frozen over.  He also said he walked all around the bay and found thicknesses of 1" to 5" of ice, so it is still very questionable.  It should be safe for walking by the middle of next week.

 

7 hours ago, travis_td said:

is the location that folks will be posting updates for Ice Fishing on Lake Vermilion this winter (2022)

This site will have ice reports for the next week or so.  I will be up the middle of next week and should report on the ice by Thursday night.  The moderator has merged this topic with the Lake Vermilion Fishing Reports topic so I will switch to posting there when I have fishing reports.  Good luck fishing, but be very careful of varying ice conditions.

[SkunkedAgain]

17 hours ago, Brianf. said:

^^^Ice that bad??

I can't say for sure, which is the point. There haven't been many ice reports because the ice is just setting up right now. I could have been more verbose, but the point is that it is pretty unsafe right now in most areas unless you really know the lake.

[NicMatNat]

many thanks to you all for providing the information.  it is appreciated.

[travis_td]

Will drill some holes on the West Side on Friday and post back.

 

[Pat McGraw]

Started a Vermilion 2022/2023 Ice Fishing thread 

 

[SkunkedAgain]

I was confused, but saw that the 2022/23 Ice Fishing thread (linked above) is in the Members Only section. Can't we have it in the "Vermilion-Pelican Lake-Chisholm-Cook-Ely-Eveleth-Hibbing-Orr-Virginia Fishing Reports - Hunting" like all of the others?

Edited December 7, 2022 by SkunkedAgain

[JerkinLips]

Walked out 1/2 mile from McKinley Park today and found 8 inches of nice black ice. Lots of snowmobiles and ATVs running around today. It is -15f in Soudan right now so it should make more ice tonight. I thought it felt quite cold walking in this evening.

 

Fishing was pretty good but most were only 9-13 inches.  Chugs were slightly better than pike suckers. I even caught a 23 inch on half a crawler left over from this fall.

 

Good luck if you venture out, and be very cautious on the ice and courteous to others.

[JerkinLips]

Ice thickness increased to 10 inches overnight. Someone even drove a car out to the mouth of Stunts Bay today. Ice looks good, but never certain. Please be cautious.

 

Fishing was good a good today. Lots of small eyes but did land a 24" that fought hard. Pics are from the Park this afternoon.

[SkunkedAgain]

Great updates. Thanks as usual

[travis_td]

Hi all, 8-10" inches over on the West Side.  Walleye bite was a little slow for us.  Will try again tomorrow.

[JerkinLips]

Only added half inch of ice overnight (now 10.5" thick).  Several Ice Castles were pulled outside of McKinley Park bay.  The ice was moaning alot when the last one was towed out this afternoon.

 

Fishing was very tough today.  Three of us caught only a dozen walleyes with no slot fish and only 3 keepers.  Don't know if it was the weather or vehicle traffic/fishing pressure.  Good luck fishing this weekend and be careful and courteous.

[JerkinLips]

Ice thickness increased to 11 inches. The Ice was in great shape before the storm. Got 5 inches of heavy wet snow Tuesday night and the ice got much worse. I saw water around many wheel houses and I hit slush several times riding snowmobile from Stunts Bay to McKinley Park. They are predicted 4-8 inches more tonight so it will only get worse. I hope to drive back to the cities Thursday night but may wait until Friday morning. I will update the conditions after tomorrow.   JerkinLips

[BWpineisland]

Your updates are much appreciated, please keep them coming!!

[JerkinLips]

Got over 10 inches of snow in Soudan Wednesday night to Thursday morning.  I was worried about downed trees on the snowmobile trail from Soudan to McKinley Park so I drove my snowmobile on the road.  On the top of the hill before the park a 40 foot balsam tree fell completely across the road, blocking the way.  Since I didn't have a saw with, I attempted to go over the top end of the tree in the ditch.  Well the tree got caught in my front suspension and stopped my sled.  Fortunately I was able to extricate the tree from the suspension and continue the near white-out journey.

 

The snow was very deep and soft on the lake so I was happy I took the sled.  I had 2 inches of water on top of the ice by my light weight fish house.  I noticed that several wheel houses appeared to be sitting in water, probably close to their floor.  There was one patch of slush about 100 feet out from the landing, and another worse one about a tenth mile out.  I didn't hit any slush with the sled.  Probably floated on the fresh snow over slush spots.

 

A few pickup trucks drove out on the lake this week, but with the heavy snow this week I would be very cautious heading out.  I didn't see any plowed roads but there were some vehicle tracks where people drove.  ATVs and UHVs were still driving around quite a bit still but I feel better riding the snowmobile.

 

The heavy snow was beautiful on the trees, but unfortunately will damage or break quite a few of them. The pictures are from Thursday afternoon heading to the park on the snowmobile trail, and then the view of the park landing.

 

Fishing was pretty good, especially from  830 to 1130.  There was a short evening bite both Tuesday and Wednesday, but I did not have a bite Thursday afternoon.  Maybe it was the storm finally taking effect, or the heavier traffic on the lake then.  Chubs and rainbows were about equally effective, although the rainbows from the Y didn't look much different than the chubs.  Lots of small 11-14" fish.  Caught only one slot fish at 22", then the next biggest was just 17".  One fat 14" eye I kept for a meal had 11 minnows in its stomach.  It also had a hard bony clump at the end of its stomach.  Maybe that was blocking its stomach and causing it to continue to feed.  I lost one fish on the set when the line broke at the hook.  When I looked at my forceps I found the end of the knot from the previous hook removal.  That will teach me to not inspect the line after hook removal.

 

If you venture out, good luck and enjoy the beauty of the fresh snow.  Be very careful of the ice conditions, and be courteous to others on the lake.