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I would venture a guess that with the makeup of the ice (mostly slush ice) we all may be very surprised how fast this stuff gets outta here. And then maybe not also. Guess we will just have to wait and see. Nothing is going to happen until we get rid of the darn snow.....

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I thought that Vermilion would open before a lot of metro lakes because of the weak ice, but was expecting normal spring temps. I'm still excited to ice fish the opener

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A wonderful description of how lake ice melts away appeared on the web blog "Air Mass", hosted by the Star Tribune's Bill McAuliffe. Ed Swain, of the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency describes the process of freezing and thawing lakes.

1.In the late fall, the lake loses heat to the atmosphere, and then on a day or night when the wind is not blowing, ice forms. The ice gets thicker as long as the lake can continue to lose heat.

2.In most Januaries and Februaries, snow both reflects sunlight and insulates the lake. With a thick snow layer, the lake neither gains nor loses heat. The bottom sediment is actually heating the lake water slightly over the winter, from stored summer heat.

3.Around March, as the air warms and the sun gets more intense, the snow melts, allowing light to penetrate the ice. Because the ice acts like the glass in a greenhouse, the water beneath it begins to warm, and the ice begins to melt FROM THE BOTTOM.

4.When the ice thickness erodes to between 4 and 12 inches, it transforms into long vertical crystals called "candles." These conduct light even better, so the ice starts to look black, because it is not reflecting much sunlight.

5.Warming continues because the light energy is being transferred to the water below the ice. Meltwater fills in between the crystals, which begin breaking apart. The surface appears grayish as the ice reflects a bit more light than before.

6.The wind comes up, and breaks the surface apart. The candles will often be blown to one side of the lake, making a tinkling sound as they knock against one another, and piling up on the shore. In hours, a sparkling blue lake, once again!

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We still haven't gotten past #3 - the snow has to melt before there is any green house effect.

I've been keeping tabs on the MNDOT ground sensor at Orr. There still isn't any frost going out of the ground. By this time last year, the top 20 inches had thawed and the lower 12 inches had thawed. We all know how long it took for Vermilion to be ice free last year. Of course last year the first 25 days of April were way below normal temps. If it ever warms up, just maybe there is hope we will have liquid water by opener, but I wouldn't count on it.

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I was out looking for crappie on Vermilion this morning.

I found only about 24 inches of ice where I was. There was about 12 inches of top ice, a couple inches of water, and then about 12 inches of bottom ice. All of the ice was white milky ice!

No crappies but did C&R about a half dozen Tulibees in a couple of hours.

Cliff

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Thanks for that encouraging news, Mark and Cliff. I'm hopeful, although getting a dock in before the opener could be tough. I'm sick of fishing shows, I've made my annual Cabelas order, I've planned some early season tactics and I'm more than ready to go!

RLG

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Dick

You wintered OK I see smile I'm beginning to think you're pretty smart heading south for the winter. It'll most likely be a mess getting docks lowered by opener if the ice goes late but here's hoping. I just stop into Cabelas on my way through about once a month. Saves postage. My early season tactic is going to be to drop anchor within sight of your dock and watch a bobber wink

I'll keep you posted as spring springs.

Good Fishing,

MarkB smile

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Keep the faith guys,things can change pretty quicky.The frost is going out in our neck of the woods as we just got our running city water back today.That's nice grin after close to 6 weeks of hauling water,I'm going to take a nice 15-20 minute warm shower.So how long does it take for these ground temps to go 400+ miles north once the snow is gone?Most of our snow has been gone for 2-3 weeks plus mid to upper 50"s here all week with 1 day close to 70,along with some warm southerly winds.

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The lakes around Ely have lost a lot of snow recently. Next few days look good for melting more snow too. It's gonna be close! smile

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I wish I had your faith Mike, but I don't think you'll see open water on the large lakes like Burntside, Snowbank, Knife, even Moose Lake.

If they do open, there won't be enough bait, if any, to go around for fishing. frown

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I wish I had your faith Mike, but I don't think you'll see open water on the large lakes like Burntside, Snowbank, Knife, even Moose Lake.

If they do open, there won't be enough bait, if any, to go around for fishing. frown

What about the smaller, 100 acre size lakes? Any hope? What's the snow depth at right now?

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Ice out on smaller lakes is possible, but will need to see how bad/if they winter killed once they open up.

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Not much snow left on top of the ice in this area. Mostly water on top now.

Cliff

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There's still quite a lot of snow left on the level and in piles but it's leaving daily. Earlier today, I had 59 degrees in the sun but that's dropped to 48 degrees as I type this. The good thing is the sun has been shining for the past few days. There's quite a lot of patchy water areas(on top of the ice) out towards Banana Island and beyond. I took a ride around the western end of Daisy Bay and there is lots of water on the ice down that way. We need some warm nights to really get things going and the forecast doesn't look to promising for that.

Good Fishing,

MarkB smile

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The deer are having a good time on the ice today, saw about 20 when I took the golf cart for a spin on the lake.

full-179-44341-lakevermiliondeer.jpg

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Mark,

Winter has been brutal here, too, although when I really got bummed, I'd check the Tower conditions and quit whining. Sounds like a good plan for the opener. I'll see you there if we can get to the island by then.

RLG

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Ah, but we can! wink

With the sun spot activity slowing down, (beginning last fall) this may be the start many opening weekends on frozen lakes! gringringrin

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I sure hope the decline in solar activity doesn't result in another "Maunder minimum" (a period of very low solar activity that resulted in a mini "ice age" from 1645-1715.). Some scientists say the slowdown in solar sunspots is very similar to what happened just before the Maunder Minimum. Goggle this - it will scare you. If this happens, we could see ice outs in June or early July.

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The MN DNR finally reported the first 2 lakes in MN being ice free (on the MN/Iowa border). Both lakes went ice free on the same date this year as they did in 2013.

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/ice_out/index.html

Clear Lake, in Northern Iowa, was mostly ice free as of Monday - it probably went out in the last day or so. Usually it goes out by April 1. Keep praying for warm weather!!

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Lots of gloom and doom here! Isn't that DOT sensor on a regularly plowed road bed just like all those frozen water lines in our towns? The rivers around Vermilion are starting to change rapidly and its still a month until opener. I say we will be ice free by opener with relatively high water compared to normal (tough for some docks?). If not I'm sure we will have plenty of fishable water from mid May into November.. seems normal if you think about it? As far as bait goes, whatever our local bait shops are too stubborn to find us we will continue to find ourselves!

Now smile a little and keep an eye on the webcams.

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Casey,

Finding your own bait will also be tough this spring. A lot of winter kill, and low water last fall had many ponds and creeks drying up.

This will not be a "put in a trap and catch lots of minnows" like some think. cry

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Hate to deliver bad news but chances are increasing for at least a few inches of new snow over the next few days...The big thing is temps will be a good bit below normal over the next 10 days or so!...I would not be surprised to see a few local temps fall to the 8 to 10 degree range for lows by early next week!...My thinking as of now is late April and early May might not be the best for those who want much warmer conditions...Believe me I know how most of you feel I have been hearing from some unhappy clients all over Minnesota/Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan,but then again some clients have liked the snow conditions for late season snowmobiling in some areas.

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They fished Burntside on the 2013 opening weekend with two lines, AND were still using their snowmobiles.

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They fished Burntside on the 2013 opening weekend with two lines, AND were still using their snowmobiles.

Wow,I remember that weekend did get warm.

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Well, I'm no scientist, but I did stay at a holiday inn once. After watching the ice-out on Vermilion from my front window for about 25 years. I do know on thing, it is way behind schedule. We did finally get water running over the dam on the Pike river a few days ago. That means about a week of decent weather would open that end of Pike bay. No way that will happen this year. Big bay typically opens 7 to ten days after Pike bay opens and with the weather we have on the way for the next several days there is no way that Pike bay opens in less than 3 weeks. I hope just like the rest of you that it will happen. Unfortunately I don't think we have a chance that it opens in the next 25 days.

Man I hope I'm wrong.

"Ace"

Is the ice gone yet? No Dear, you can go back to sleep....

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