pairwise ranking

[scsavre]

I think the Gophs have to at least make the championship game to make the NCAA's, and that might not be enough. We wont gain more then a spot or two if we win our next 4 games against unranked teams.

Maybe if they beat CC twice in the WCHA's, then knock off UND friday, and maybe that gets them on the bubble. They better just win to be sure.

[cbrooks]

]I think the Gophs have to at least make the championship game to make the NCAA's, and that might not be enough. We wont gain more then a spot or two if we win our next 4 games against unranked teams.

I'm thinking exactly that. There will just keep spliting these last two weekends and then finish in the top two spots in the Final 5. Just making a wild prediction. They can do what UMD did two years ago when Stalock got on his hot streak. If I'm wrong I'm wrong but if I'm right. I'm gonna look really smart .

[Bear55]

I think you guys are right on, need to go 6-0 into the final five and probably take 2 out of 3 games to get in.

[cbrooks]

This has a good run down of what everybody needs to do to make the NCAA tourament.

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2011/02/16_ncaa_tourament_bracket_adcs.php

Darn...That didn't bring to the article. Scroll down to the bottom left hand side in the Top Ten articles. Its #1 titled "NCAA bracket ABCs: first edition"

[scsavre]

I knew Sioux fans had their rights and wrongs mixed up, but brook you have your rights and lefts mixed up. Bottom right on my computer. I have to keep an eye on you.

Gophs will make it exciting. If they make it to STp for the WCHA, it is going to be crazy. I would think the league would give them a tie breaker being the home team for the NCAA's. I guess the frozen 4 is still a long ways away from just making the NCAA's though. So maybe not.

[cbrooks]

Thanks for keeping setting me straight Scott. I laugh out loud when I read that. No kidding

[Bear55]

Typical PWR the gophers sweep a crappie team and drop from 18 to tied for 19th. They will have to win the WCHA tournament to get into the NCAA's, not impossible with the way they have been playing but it will be very hard to accomplish. Going 2-2-2 against UMD, Denver, & WI would normally be considered ok but they dug themselves a hole the first half of the season and needed to do much better then that to get themselves out of the.

[scsavre]

Are you kidding, they went down....that is just stupid.

[cbrooks]

Feb 28th

Pairwise KRACH

1.Yale............1.UND

2.UND.............2.Yale

3.BC..............3.BC

4.Michigan........4.Denver

5.Denver..........5.Michigan

6.Union...........6.UMD

7.Merrimack.......7.Union

8.UNO.............8.Notre Dame

9.Notre Dame......9.Miami

10.Miami.........10.UNO

11.UMD...........11.Merrimack

12.New Hampshire.12.New Hampshire

13.RPI...........13.Minnesota

14.CC............14.CC

15.Dartmouth.....15.Wisconsin

16.Boston U......16.Boston U

17.Maine.........17.Western Mich

18.Western Mich..18.Maine

19.Minnesota.....19.SCSU

20.SCSU..........20.RPI

21.Wisconsin.....21.Dartmouth

22.Ferris St.....22.Mankato

23.Alaska........23.Alaska

24.Mankato.......24.AA

25.Princeton.....25.Ferris St

Wisconsin has drop alot the last couple of weeks. Minnesota hasn't gone up much despite all the wins they have lately. The best thing for Minnesota right now would to have Wisconsin the first round of WCHA playoff and take them out of NCAA tourney. You don't want the Wisconsin on Team Under Consideration especially since regions are held in Green Bay.

[Bear55]

I've always been a fan of KRACH (even when it ranks the Gopher lower) but wow it kind of hurts to look at today (13th vs 19th PWR). They have played well since the new year, 7-4-3 against some pretty good competition but obviously not enough to move up in the PWR.

[scsavre]

You know what I dont like.

W Michigan moves back 3 with a split

BU moves back 1 with a win and a tie

Dart moves up 1 with a split

CC moves up 5 with a win and tie

Wis moves back 7 got swept

Ren moves back 2 lost and tied

The Gophers move back 1 after sweeping. That is jsut dumb to me.

[Bear55]

Here is a good read about the PWR and TUC. If the Gopher sweep Bemidji they can actually hurt themselves by taking them out of the TUC, I guess the only good news I can find is if we are going down we might as well take SCSU with us because they are totally screwed if Bemidji loses.

http://www.uscho.com/wcha-blog/2011/03/01/the-improtance-of-defeating-tucs-in-the-pairwise-system/

Overall the PWR isn't a terrible system but it's stupid stuff like this that makes you want to bang your head against the wall. There have been several instances in the past where teams could help themselves by losing and that just isn't right.

[cbrooks]

I remember you mentioning Bear that the Krach system would be the best way to do the rankings because you can't hurt your rank by beating teams. I think its a matter of time before they go to that system. Every year you hear of more people mentioning the Krach rankings. I agree with everything you mention above. Winning and losing should never be comprimise like that.

Minnesota is gonna have to earn its way to the tourney without any favors.

[Bear55]

I remember thinking that 10 years ago but the "committee" seems determined to stick with their system. I hope for a change but don't really know if it will ever happen.

I know some of the smaller conferences and schools don't like KRACH because its heavily determined by strength of schedule and you might have a team that is 17-14-3 get in ahead of a team that is 20-10-4 but I still like it. Changes are a team with 17 wins against a strong schedule is going to beat a team with 20 wins against a so so schedule anyway.

Like I have said before the PWR does do a good job of picking the top teams, things just get messy in the middle and some of these odd statistics can have a dramatic effect on your teams ranking.

The Gophers didn't do themselves any favors the first half of the season and they are paying for it now. Its time to win or go home, something tells me we make a run but come up short.

[solbes]

Like the current system or not, it always gets exciting at the end. Teams that were absolute locks for an NCAA bid even 1 month ago are now in danger of losing their bid. Teams that were not even sniffing the tourney a month ago are now in the hunt.

The only two teams that are probably a lock from here on out are UND and DU. Omaha, Duluth, CC, Minnesota, Saint Cloud, and Wisconsin are all teams that could go either way depending on outcomes of their next 4-6 games.

I agree with Bear, but it really does weight Strength of Schedule pretty heavily. UMD does not deserve to be #6, as they currently stand in Krach.

[Bear55]

Come give the Dogs some credit, they might not be playing all that well lately but KRACH takes the whole season into account so great play early in the season shouldn't be punished. You have also played a lot harder schedule then times like Yale, BC, Merrimack, and Union so I see no reason why the dogs don't deserve to be up there.

I am actually very much ok with the PWR, just a few things I don't like about it that get a little magnified when you are on the outside looking in.

[scsavre]

I am always pretty ok with the top half of the PWR, its the middle 12 to 22 that gets a little crazy.

I think UMD is in the right spot. Its a season the just the second half that counts.

[solbes]

Bah, this 2nd half of the year has been pathetic. Seen it happen too many times. Gotta play the games though, maybe they can turn it around.

I am pleased to see the Gophers playing better, and it's also good to see Saint Cloud playing to their potential lately. WCHA playoffs should be fun as always.

[cbrooks]

March 6th PWR

1.Yale

2.BC

3.UND

4.Michigan

5.Denver

6.Union

7.UNO

8.Merrimack

9.Miami

10.Notre Dame

11.UMD

12.New Hampshire

13.Dartmouth

14.RPI

15.Western Mich

16.Boston U

17.CC

18.Maine

19.Minnesota

20.SCSU

21.Alaska

22.Ferris St

23.Wisconsin

24.AA

25.Quinnipiac

I got RIT or Air Force winning there weak Conference so they will get the #16 seed in the tourney. So you have to figure the top 15 to make the NCAA tourney.

[scsavre]

UND sweeps, and moves down. Dumb.

I dont think Dartmouth and Wmich even played and they moved up.

[cbrooks]

Its not a perfect system. I didn't expect UNDs sweep to help them in anyway, oh well. How would you like to be a Wisconsin fan right now? Talk about a team falling off.

[scsavre]

Worst tumble I have seen since the Gophers 5 year slide.

[cbrooks]

When I saw Wisconsin play UND I wasn't impress I remember. On paper some of there players have decent numbers. Tough to say if thereslumping or this is the real Badger team.

[cbrooks]

Looking at the tourament brackets of the other leagues. I notice the ECAC league doesn't have Yale #1 seed. Union got the #1 seed in that conference.

[cbrooks]

Sunday morning March 13th

Pairwise

1.Yale-plays St. Lawrence today to move on in the ECAC series tied 1-1

2.UND

3.BC

4.Michigan

5.Miami

6.Denver

7.Merrimack

8.Union-plays Colgate today; series is tied 1-1

9.UMD

10.Notre Dame-plays Lake Superior today series tied 1-1

11.New Hampshire

12.UNO-Is there season done? probably

13.Western Mich-plays Ferris St today seies tied 1-1

14.CC

15.Dartmouth-Plays Harvard today series tied 1-1

16.RPI-there done

17.Boston U-plays Northeastern today seies tied 1-1

18.Maine-there done

19.Minnesota-done

20.AA

21.SCSU

22.Ferris St

23.Wisconsin

24.Alaska

25.BSU

[cbrooks]

I take back not thinking UNO makes it. taking a closer look if Western Mich, Dartmouth and Boston win today I would say that UNO is more than likely out. ASny of those teams lose UNO still is in. There still other scenios that can happen in a week.

[cbrooks]

Yale won so they retain the #1 spot.

Notre Dame won.

Union lost;They should make the tourament

Western Mich won;Thats bad news for UNO they move up UNO moves down.

Dartmouth wins;more bad news for UNO.

Boston U loses to Northeastern;they are more than likely out.

[solbes]

Brooks, they didn't update the pairwise on Sunday from Saturday's results. Don't know why. But they have been updated now and they included Sunday evening games also.

1 Yale

2 North Dakota

3 Boston College

4t Michigan

4t Miami 25

6t Denver

6t Minnesota-Duluth

6t Merrimack

9 Union

10 Notre Dame

11t New Hampshire

11t Western Michigan

13t Nebraska-Omaha

13t Colorado College

15t Dartmouth

15t Rensselaer

17 Boston University 13

18 Maine

[cbrooks]

Alright. Looking at UNO. Asking myself how can UNO get bounce out of tourney contention. There currently 13. They will have to fall below 15 seed. So any team below them that moves up moves UNO down. Here's some of the things that can happen to cause UNO to move down the pairwise as they sit idle the next week.

1. CC beats AA on Thursday

2. Dartmouth wins the ECAC conference

3.Northestern wins hockey East-highly unlikely they win there next game against BC.

4.All three things above would have to happen to push UNO out.

5.CC and BSU play each other Saturday for the Brodmour. They make the tourney.

6. Of course some of the teams playing can also move down from a lost which is a plus for UNO.

I see UNO making the tourney as a #4 seed in the same region as UND. You can bet they will lump the WCHA teams together.

[solbes]

I see UNO making the tourney as a #4 seed in the same region as UND. You can bet they will lump the WCHA teams together.

They will spread the 4 or 5 WCHA teams to 2 or possibly 3 regionals. For sure there will be 2 teams each in the St Louis and Green Bay regionals. I would place my bets on UND getting the #1 in the Green Bay regional, with UMD likely as a #2 seed.

I would also bet that Michigan gets the #1 seed in St Louis, with Miami as a #2, and UNO as a #4. That would be a tough road for Dean to conquer, two very quality teams to beat in order to advance. On the bright side, they won't have any F5 distractions to worry about. They should be focused and ready come tourney time. Should be Dean's last hurrah in Omaha. Before he gets hired by Maturi to finally bring the Gophers back into the spotlight.

CC I see in Manchester as a #4 with BC to open their regional, ouch.