Jump to content
  • GUESTS

    If You  want access  to member only forums on FM, You will need to Sign-in or  Sign-Up now .

    This box will disappear once you are signed in as a member.

Even the PC thinks ChiSoc yack


IFallsRon

Recommended Posts

Computer crashes White Sox

Statistical program predicts aging team will win only 72 games

By Dave van Dyck

Tribune staff reporter

March 10, 2007, 5:49 PM CST

TUCSON, Ariz. -- After winning a World Series and more games the last two seasons than any team in baseball except the New York Yankees, the White Sox should have earned a little respect.

Right?

Well, maybe from real baseball people, but not in the surreal world of computers.

Baseball Prospectus, considered the new-age statistical bible, projects the White Sox to finish with a 72-90 record this season.

"Well, we're screwed now," team captain Paul Konerko said with a sarcastic laugh. "I guess we'll just have to battle through."

What the White Sox will be battling, however, are their own statistics, their ages, historical comparisons and myriad other data fed into the PECOTA system at Baseball Prospectus.

How the computer arrives at its final projections is way above the average baseball mind, a sort of "objective" analysis of what the computer predicts is going to happen.

And the scary part is that the computer can be accurate much of the time. It projected five of the six division winners last spring and predicted the Detroit Tigers would finish with a better record than the defending champion White Sox.

But 72 victories for a team that has averaged 95 the last two seasons? How could that be?

"Seventy-two is what the computer is saying, not what I would say if I were in Las Vegas and had a gun to my head," said Nate Silver, who helped write the program and feed statistics into the computer.

"If I were doing it [subjectively], I wouldn't say 72, but I would say they could be .500. I do believe they'll finish behind [Minnesota, Cleveland and Detroit] in the Central."

Silver lived on the South Side and currently lives on the North Side. But he has great respect for the White Sox organization because of its scouting, its aggressiveness in making trades and its managing/coaching staff.

"If I have a bias [in Chicago], it would be pro-White Sox, so I'm not doing it to spite them," Silver said. "If I were writing the article, I might say the computer was wrong. [but] you can't take into account [subjectivity]."

What data led to the computer spitting out 72?

"The reason the team projection is poor is because individual projections are poor," Silver said. "Jermaine Dye (33), Jim Thome (36) and Paul Konerko (31) are on the wrong side of 30 [years old]. And there are places where they give away too many runs."

The computer didn't like Darin Erstad because of his age (32) and injury history and didn't like expected fifth starter Gavin Floyd because of his inexperience. Plus, Silver said, the rest of the division and the American League are getting better.

"They're in the wrong division and the wrong league," Silver said.

Naturally, the White Sox scoff at this, although they could use it to help restore the massive chip on their shoulder that was lost after the 2005 season.

"That's a good sign for us because usually they're wrong about everything regarding our dealings," general manager Ken Williams said. "What can you do? We put the best team together we can, and we think we're going to end up somewhere in the mid-90s, although there are all kinds of variables off that.

"We have won a lot of games the last couple of years and we didn't do a whole lot different other than a couple of bullpen spots and the fifth starter."

But, Williams was reminded, the computer says the Sox are a year older.

"Maybe we're a year better then," Williams said. "I've run out of ways to respond to all the daggers that have been thrown our way over the years. I asked someone the other day who over the years has continued to be embarrassed, 'Don't you get tired of being wrong or is it you figure one of these days you're going to be right?'

"The only way to respond starts April 1. Before that it's all talk."

The computer can't talk back.

"Sometimes we're right and sometimes we're wrong," Silver said.

The projections for the 99-victory 2005 world champions were 71-91 and a fourth-place finish.

So there is hope, because the game is, after all, played by human beings who sometimes rise above their statistical trends.

To believe the computer or not, that is the question.

"I saw a bunch of preseason stuff last year that had us repeating as World Series [champions] and what good did that do for us?" Konerko said.

"It's all smoke."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If anybody wants some action on that prediction, let me know. I would be willing to bet 2 to 1 on each win over 72 to under 72, any gamblers out there give me a shout, and your credit card number, LOL. I think this is the same computer that predicted Dewey defeating Eisenhower that the papers ran with!

Windy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.


  • Your Responses - Share & Have Fun :)

    • Brianf.
      I'm not there, so I can't tell exactly what's going on but it looks like a large area of open water developed in the last day with all of the heavy snow on the east side of wake em up Narrows. These two photos are from my Ring Camera facing north towards Niles Point.  You can see what happened with all of snow that fell in the last three days, though the open water could have been wind driven. Hard to say. .  
    • SkunkedAgain
      Black Bay had great ice before but a few spots near rockpiles where there were spots of open water. It looks like the weight of the snow has created a little lake in the middle of the bay.  
    • LakeofthewoodsMN
      On the south end...   Thanks to some cold spring weather, ice fishing continues strong for those still ice fishing.  The bite remains very good.  Most resorts have pulled their fish houses off for the year, however, some still have fish houses out and others are allowing ATV and side by sides.  Check social media or call ahead to your favorite resort for specifics. Reports this week for walleyes and saugers remain excellent.   A nice mix of jumbo perch, pike, eelpout, and an occasional crappie, tullibee or sturgeon being reported by anglers. Jigging one line and using a live minnow on the second line is the way to go.  Green, glow red, pink and gold were good colors this week.     Monster pike are on a tear!  Good number of pike, some reaching over 45 inches long, being caught using tip ups with live suckers or dead bait such as smelt and herring in 8 - 14' of water.   As always, work through a resort or outfitter for ice road conditions.  Safety first always. Fish houses are allowed on the ice through March 31st, the walleye / sauger season goes through April 14th and the pike season never ends. On the Rainy River...  The river is opened up along the Nelson Park boat ramp in Birchdale, the Frontier boat ramp and Vidas boat ramp.  This past week, much of the open water skimmed over with the single digit overnight temps.   Areas of the river have popped open again and with temps getting warmer, things are shaping up for the last stretch through the rest of the spring season, which continues through April 14th.   Very good numbers of walleyes are in the river.  Reports this week, even with fewer anglers, have been good.  When temps warm up and the sun shines, things will fire up again.   Jigs with brightly colored plastics or jigs with a frozen emerald shiner have been the desired bait on the river.  Don't overlook slow trolling crankbaits upstream as well.   Good reports of sturgeon being caught on the river as well.  Sturgeon put the feed bag on in the spring.  The bite has been very good.  Most are using a sturgeon rig with a circle hook loaded with crawlers or crawlers / frozen emerald shiners. Up at the NW Angle...  Ice fishing is winding down up at the Angle.  Walleyes, saugers, and a number of various species in the mix again this week.  The bite is still very good with good numbers of fish.  The one two punch of jigging one line and deadsticking the second line is working well.   Check with Angle resorts on transport options from Young's Bay.  Call ahead for ice road guidelines.  
    • CigarGuy
      With the drifting, kind of hard to tell for sure, but I'm guessing about a foot and still lightly snowing. Cook end!
    • PSU
      How much snow did you get on Vermilion? 
    • Mike89
      lake here refroze too...  started opening again yesterday with the wet snow and wind...  very little ice left today...
    • Hookmaster
      A friend who has a cabin between Alex and Fergus said the lake he's on refroze. He texted me a pic from March 12th when it was open and one from 23rd when it wasn't. 🤯
    • SkunkedAgain
      I don't think that there has been any ice melt in the past few weeks on Vermilion. Things looked like a record and then Mother Nature swept in again.   I'll give my revised guess of April 21st
    • leech~~
      As I get older it's really not just about sending bullets down range.  Some of it's just the workmanship of the gun and the wow factor. The other two guns I have really wanted which I'll never have now because of their price, is a 8mm Jap Nambu and 9mm German Luger.   Just thought they always looked cool!  
    • jim curlee
      I had a guy hit me with a lightly used 1969 BAR, he wanted $1650 with an older Leupold scope. More than I think they are worth, I made an offer, he declined end of story.   You know if you look at the old brochures, a grade II BAR sold for $250 in the late 60s, $1650 would be a good return on your investment.    Why would anybody want a 50 year old gun, they are heavy, have wood stocks, and blued metal.  I guess mainly to keep their gun safes glued to the floor. lol   You can probably buy a stainless rifle that you never have to clean, with a synthetic stock you never have to refinish, is as light as a feather, and for half as much money, perfect.   I'm too old for a youth gun, although I've shrunk enough that it would probably fit. lol   No Ruger 10/44s.   Jim      
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.