CATASTROPHIC MELTDOWN POSSIBLE!

[Frank Boling 41]

I really do hate it when I have to forecast weather that could severely impact the livelihood of not just clients but everyone else too...I sent info out to clients last week about possible above to much above temps for most areas of the upper Midwest from Dec 11-14 and maybe longer,in some cases record breaking or near record breaking temps...This will have huge impacts on ice conditions and snow cover over most of MN,WI and the UP of MI,I know its very bad news for folks that make a living in part from outdoor winter activities...Also a large storm system might be in the works that could deliver lots of rain before it ends as snow the week of Dec 15...We will just have to pray and hope that temps do not warm to the degree that some data is showing and that a major rain event will not transpire...Sorry for bad news but that's the way things look as of now!

Frank

[Cliff Wagenbach]

Frank,

Bad news indeed, but thanks for the heads up! At least we can somewhat prepare for it!

Cliff

[Frank Boling 41]

Cliff,

You're are more then welcome,glad to be able to give some helping info!...I'M still hoping some of the warm temp data is overdone on the model runs...850MB temps for end of this next week and weekend are forecast to be in the 12 to 14 degree Celsius range,just depends on how much of that warm air can descend to the surface to whether surface temps in northern MN hit 35 to 40 to as high as mid to upper 40s for two or three straight days.

[aanderud]

The 10 day forecast shows like 3 days in the 40s. I don't think that'll be catastrophic. If anything some melting of what snow is on top of the ice will help it when it cools down later this month. Maybe I'm wrong. Time will tell.

[JerkinLips]

It shouldn't affect the ice on Vermilion since it was set up pretty well. It could melt most of the snow. Guess I may have to trailer my snowmobile from Soudan to the lake when I am up Dec. 10-12. I will report on the ice conditions Dec. 13.

[Bandit155]

How thick is the ice out from McKinley Park? I drove by there a couple days ago and saw quite a few houses out there and some 4 wheelers and only a couple cars and trucks.

[Cliff Wagenbach]

How thick is the ice out from McKinley Park? I drove by there a couple days ago and saw quite a few houses out there and some 4 wheelers and only a couple cars and trucks.

I have heard reports that there is as much as 14 inches of ice out from McKinley.

12 to 13 inches where I am fishing.

Driving my truck out the past 3 days!

Cliff

[Bandit155]

Cliff, Thanks for the update.

[redneckdan]

Dude, relax.

As of right now the forecast is indicating night time lows well below freezing for every night, except this coming friday and saturday. Most models are predicting total rain falls around a quarter inch. Models are also predicting a return to slightly colder than average temps by Christmas and they will likely stay that way through the winter.

Rain and warmer tempts might actually help by weting down any snow, removing the R value which would help freeze up any underlying slush during the following cool down.

I am seeing 14-16" of solid ice on the local lakes. I cut one spearing hole for a guy that I had to go back home and grab my 395 because the 20" on my 455 was not quite enough. Obviously the big lakes up north are a different situtation, one that I don't currently have a lot of beta on.

If we were going to see a week of mid 70s with lows in the 50s and rain like we saw in mid march of '12, I would be concerned.

[SkunkedAgain]

It sounds like a forecast for icefishing in shorts weather...yahoo

[shamrock7]

Frank, thanks for the information. Most appreciate your professional insight

[Frank Boling 41]

Randy,

Thanks for your kind words!

[Frank Boling 41]

Might dodge a bad situation with a temperature inversion that is taking place over much of the area,this will help hold temps down from what they might have been if the area had lots of sun for Fri-Sun...I have no doubt that high temps might have climbed into the mid 40s and even some low 50s if we had good sun and stronger winds to aid mixing of the atmosphere...So thank God the area ice might not take such a big hit as it could have...The next thing to watch for is if this heat ridge pattern starts re-occurring every few days or so!

[pushbutton]

Always enjoy reading your insights! Think you should do a special FM weekly thread and breakdown the whole state While you may have escaped up nort, us southerners are going to get some of those mid 40's and bet we would have been looking at 50's without the cloud cover. Hopefully, the lakes around here won't take too much of a beating. Good thing we got an early start this year or suspect this warm up would have been almost for sure catastrophic. The next few weeks certainly will be interesting, as it really does not appear, for the immediate future anyway, that we are going to be in much of an ice making mode.

[Frank Boling 41]

Pushbutton,

Thanks for reading!...Sorry I should have posted more about the central and southern areas of MN,as you stated even down that way most lakes will probably be ok since this mild spell will be tempered by clouds thanks to the strong temp inversion..Another thing to watch for will be the possible storm that could bring a wide mix of precip to much of the region by late weekend and early next week...The LR Ensemble runs are starting to show more of a return to below normal temps from around the 23rd through first part of Jan....As for the weekly thread thing I just wish I could find the time,I did not get to bed til almost 2am and I'M up going again at 5am...Good fishing to ya and be safe!

[Cliff Wagenbach]

Thanks again Frank!

We dodged the bullet up-north this week. No melting at all on the lakes.

Cliff

[JerkinLips]

Left Vermilion at noon today. The snow on the lake was definitely softening up, and may melt tomorrow. The ice on Vermilion is definitely safe from this warm spell (trucks driving all over up to Birch Island.

[Cliff Wagenbach]

Thanks again Frank!

We dodged the bullet up-north this week. No melting at all on the lakes.

Cliff

Up date!

Went out to my fish house this morning and had 2" to 3" of water on the ice all over the bay! Very little snow left on the ice.

Pulled my house off for a few days until this mess re-freezes.

Cliff

[Mike Stark]

Found the same conditions this evening on Shagawa. Very little snow and lots of standing water around the house.

[Mike Stark]

Shags at 11am today. Very little snow left!

[leech~~]

Shags at 11am today. Very little snow left!

Don't push it Mike, you have a whole season yet to go. Puller off for a few days and hope it gets better soon!

[Mike Stark]

There is 14in of ice there. It's a light house and things will start to lock up tonight and should be firmed up in a couple days.

[chaffmj]

Mike how has the fishing been? Snow is coming down as I type this.

[Mike Stark]

Mike how has the fishing been? Snow is coming down as I type this.

We have been getting a few walleye.

[yoppdk]

Very nice photo! Did you get some snow overnight? We got a couple inches here in Grand Rapids and a bit more coming down today (Tues.)

[Mike Stark]

We did get some snow and it's still snowing now. Things locked up pretty quick last night. The frozen snow made for better traction as well. It's not glare ice out there. Everything should be locked up tight after tonight if it gets into the single digits.

[jacktar]

I'm planning to drive from Stuntz to near Bass Bay Friday. How is the ice looking in that area? Safe for a truck? Thanks!

[JerkinLips]

Last week I had 9" of ice by Birch Point. The pressure ridges were really forming with the warmer temperatures. I would be careful driving around without checking it out first.