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Many updated predictions?/???/?//??/??

I am thinking June 4th.....

Well, maybe not quite that late but anything is possible with this weather we have been having.

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  • shamrock7

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OUCH!

Things will start happening fast next week.

May 8th at the latest!

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With the warmer weather and possible rain coming it's gonna melt a bunch of this white stuff pretty fast grin.gif which will lift the ice and get things going with the sun and some wind. I'm gonning to say May 1st. \:\(

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anytime before May 24 when we come up for some walleyes. My boat doesnt run to good on ice.

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Yeah, it's a little early to be making any real educated guess. It sure was one heck of a nice day today. Spent it on the Rainy and what a day of fishing. Had a 29", 28" and a 24" walleye and a 37" sturgeon on a walleye rod. had 4 in the boat and everyone caught nice fish. And even picked up a little sun burn. Couldn't have beat this day with a stick. Got down to just a long sleeve shirt for a while this afternoon. Time to put the boat away and get back to work so Portage Bay has a boat to use once the ice goes out. Will try to post some pictures tommorrow to get everyone cranked up for our opener.

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Well, if you have to blame someone for bringing your Winter of Fun to an end, I can take the hit!

Here comes the sun!

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I know many of you know or have seen this but I always think it is interesting to read how the lake ice forms and melts, especially when we are anxiously awaiting Ice Out!

In the late fall, the lake loses heat to the atmosphere, and then on a day or night when the wind is not blowing, ice forms. The ice gets thicker as long as the lake can continue to lose heat.

In most Januaries and Februaries, snow both reflects sunlight and insulates the lake. With a thick snow layer, the lake neither gains nor loses heat. The bottom sediment is actually heating the lake water slightly over the winter, from stored summer heat.

Around March, as the air warms and the sun gets more intense, the snow melts, allowing light to penetrate the ice. Because the ice acts like the glass in a greenhouse, the water beneath it begins to warm, and the ice begins to melt FROM THE BOTTOM.

When the ice thickness erodes to between 4 and 12 inches, it transforms into long vertical crystals called "candles." These conduct light even better, so the ice starts to look black, because it is not reflecting much sunlight.

Warming continues because the light energy is being transferred to the water below the ice. Meltwater fills in between the crystals, which begin breaking apart. The surface appears grayish as the ice reflects a bit more light than before.

The wind comes up, and breaks the surface apart. The candles will often be blown to one side of the lake, making a tinkling sound as they knock against one another, and piling up on the shore. In hours, a sparkling blue lake, once again!

Last year I made it out as the last island of ice was right in front of my cabin. We sat in the boat right next to it and had a couple beers just listening to the ice candles that sounded like a wind chimes. Then we had to head over to Black bay for some Crappies. \:\) After we got back in a few hours all of the ice was gone. Come on warm sunny weather!!!

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What is the snow situation on the ground? I will be coming up later in the week to get some stuff from my cabin for the spring canoe trip. Will I need a shovel to get in the door? Or will the snow be pretty much melted by say Friday? How much on the ground at present?

Thanks...

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i would think it would all be melted by friday. Its supposed to be above 40 every day this week.

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Del,

If you have not shoveled all winter you will probably need to shovel!

It is supposed to melt all week and maybe rain so you just may get lucky!

There is around 20 inches of snow in my yard yet.

Cliff

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Nice pics and some nice fish Randy!

Sure hope we are able to catch a few fish in open water on opener! crazy.gif

Cliff

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Yeah, it should be an interesting couple of weeks seeing if this ice is going to vacate the lake in time. I think they wrapped up stripping operations about this time last year. I went over the bridge today and see that someone had been running around on the ice below the bridge on a 4 wheeler. IMO thats not that smart anytime of the year but to be able to even think about doing this time of year is crazy. But there were no holes in the ice so there must be plenty of ice there.

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Planing to do the same thing this weekend...pulling up the boat and open the cabin...

Any update on the road from Cook out to Niles Bay?

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Yes, I saw a snowmonbile on the ice there in front of my dock too.

Not to smart in my opinion!

Cliff

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My folks were up at the Lake and Cabin show in the cities this last sunday and they Chamber there said that there is no way that the ice will be gone by opener! I said maybe but that is 25 days away. I can see pikes bay being closed for opener because of the spawn but the lake not being open I do not know for sure. My bet is it will be. It does not take long to warm things up now.

Froggy!

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And a 50/50 chance of thunderstorms tomorrow. Bring on the thunderboomers! grin.gifgrin.gif

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Anybody heard when the dnr is going to start stripping eggs this year? Wouldnt think it would be too long now with this warm weather. I also have a feeling that pike bay will be closed for the opener.

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The Pike River is still frozen over from the dam to the lake yet. It will be a while before they can get the traps in.

Cliff

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Cliff

You're a great teacher-I've learned alot from you! Thank you for openly sharing your knowledge and experience with everbody who reads this forum.

A few quick questions.

1)Based on your past experience Cliff, can or will the walleyes stage and spawn under the ice during a late ice out? 2) or, If not and it's more of a open water / water temp thing that triggers them, will the spawn simply be delayed. 3) If it is delayed will it result in a poor spawn / year class.4)The last time the ice didn't go out before opener (I think I saw somewhere it was 1996) do you recall what effect it had on the walleye fishing then? 5)What do you think the chances / odds are that Vermilion will lose its snow cover and ice out in time for this years opener.

Thanks Cliff.

Praying for warm winds and rain.

Stizo

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We are staying above freezing at night now so the snow is going very quickly. The majority of the snow should be gone off the icce today. It is a wet mess out there. Snow on the ground is also going fast and should be gone for the most part by the end of the week.

Mother Nature has a way of surprising us and this may just be one of those years when we look back and say "remember how fast the ice went in 2008" Thats why we should always respect the lake, it will get us if we don't.

So I wouldn't worry to much about ice at opening.

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 Originally Posted By: shamrock7
So I wouldn't worry to much about ice at opening.

SSHHHHHHH! Don't say that out loud! Now we are in trouble.

I change my prediction from May 8th to June 8th.

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I agree with Shamrock!

The ice will be gone! Hardly any snow left on the lake this afternoon and the ice is already looking darker!

I really doubt if Pike Bay will be closed for the opener.

The spawn is closely related to water temp. They will spawn somewhere! The hatch/survival rate of the fry depends upon how warm the water manages to get after the eggs are dropped.

Cliff

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thats good news. Thanks for keeping us posted cliff. I hope your right about pike bay being open for the opener, id hate to have to work for my fish grin.gif. Pike bay is kind of our family tradition.

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Just so everyone knows what I meant by my last comment.

Oh go take a picture of something!!!!!!!!!!

Portage Bay is a photographer.

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  • Your Responses - Share & Have Fun :)

    • JerkinLips
      Had 30 feet of ice out from my Stuntz Bay boathouse on Tuesday afternoon.  None inside the boathouse so I was easily able to remove my boat from the lake (just pushed the ice away in reverse and drove forward through it with my 16 foot aluminum boat).  Didn't hook up my battery so I didn't get the lake temp.  Were lots of boat trailers parked at the landing.  Hope they get off the lake easily.  Will be ice fishing in 4 weeks.
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